New Year’s Night. 8:47 PM PST.
There’s a storm on the way to New England. There are one or two major storms there during any snow season. This will be one.
I’ve been working the numbers. It’s fun to forecast. I like maps, graphs and numbers. I can do it sitting in my chair here in Orange County.
I don’t miss the anxiety of forecasting. I know my fellow meteorologists sweat these out too. No one wants to be wrong.
At this hour radar from the Northeast is showing snow over Connecticut. Bradley’s been reporting light snow for over an hour. Most of the state is still quiet. The center of the upcoming storm is over Arkansas!
Here’s the setup: The low moves from Arkansas to the Northeast. A Canadian high will block the low’s northerly progress, but also provide an ample supply of cold air.
New England’s geography takes over.
As the low moves over the relatively mild (compared to land) ocean it will explode! A low’s strength is measure by its central pressure. The pressure will drop like a rock!
The prediction shows a rapid fall from ~1016mb to ~985mb. That will enhance both precipitation and wind! More of each.
Don’t be fooled. This isn’t a linear storm. There will be a long period of light snow, then the main course.
Thursday will be cloudy with snow showers and flurries. A few inches will accumulate during the day. If you have to drive you probably will, though you shouldn’t. The wind will being picking up.
After dark, windblown snow becoming heavy at times. Strong northeasterly winds. You’ll want to be safely home before this bad boy gets going.
Some areas might see a foot. 5-8″ will probably be the average.
The snow ends Friday morning. It will be replaced by bitterly cold air with many spots dipping below zero Saturday morning.
You don’t want to know what it will be like here in SoCal tomorrow.