It’s Hurricane Season… Really

Spoiler alert: If it came again today I’d expect the same result. Little has changed. And by historical standards Irene was on the low end of what a direct hit could be.

This is a good time to talk hurricanes because we’re now really in the season. I know it starts June 1, but the serious stuff (and Connecticut’s true susceptibility) doesn’t get going until late August. It’s like clockwork!

I could learn to enjoy the lazy life, but not like today. I’ve mostly been laying on the couch or standing. No sitting! No lifting! Nothing to irritate my tender parts.

I spent a little time this afternoon trading emails and phone calls with Peter Pach, Op-Ed Editor at the Courant. I’ve got the cover story in Sunday’s Opinion section. It’s a little look back at Hurricane/Tropical Storm Irene. We’re coming up on the anniversary.

Spoiler alert: If it came again today I’d expect the same result. Little has changed. And by historical standards Irene was on the low end of what a direct hit could be.

This is a good time to talk hurricanes because we’re now really in the season. I know it starts June 1, but the serious stuff (and Connecticut’s true susceptibility) doesn’t get going until late August. It’s like clockwork!

There are two systems currently running through the tropics. Let me dismiss Joyce first. I was worried about it for a day, but it doesn’t look like it will be strong and Joyce will most likely stay well out to sea.

Years ago storms like Joyce might have been missed. Be wary when you see us dip farther into the alphabet and talk about busy seasons. It doesn’t mean much. We’re quicker on the trigger today.

On the other hand Friday is the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew. August 24th saw the “A” storm. We’re now on “J.”

Isaac is another story. As I watched cable news today Isaac was a story because the Republican National Convention is next week in Tampa and because CNN reporters on-the-ground say the general population in Haiti have no hint it might come there! Wow.

Even if they knew where would they go?

The latest official forecast from the Hurricane Center has Isaac transiting Cuba the long way. Cuba is a mountainous island–hurricane kryptonite. Of course as soon as Isaac exits Cuba it’s in the Florida Straits then the Gulf of Mexico. Both are warm. Both will have minimal inhibiting factors.

What I’m getting at is even if Isaac comes off Cuba as a ratty depression conditions will be there for rapid reformation… or not. Hurricanes are quirky that way.

Earlier today Bill Karins MSNBC’s meteorologist said,

“I don’t see any way possible that Tampa’s going to be completely missed at this point.”

Seriously, Bill, I never would have said that. It’s Thursday. There’s a lot that can change. That’s more accuracy than science can provide.

I am also glad not to be Florida’s governor or Tampa’s mayor who both spent the afternoon blowing smoke and saying how prepared they are. Uh huh. I’m sure they’re ready for 50,000 extra souls all used to be treated like kings and being first in line. At least there will be a full complement of strippers and hookers (thanks again to CNN for that coverage).

More than likely the Republicans will have a poor impression of Tampa Bay weather, but no actual hurricane. It will remain the kind of romantic fantasy hurricane’s always are until you’ve experienced one first hand. That no electricity thing gets old in a hurry.

If Isaac survives Cuba the Northern Gulf looks most likely for landfall. No one is off the hook yet. It’s only Thursday

4 thoughts on “It’s Hurricane Season… Really”

  1. My bro and his now wife survived Hurricane Bob, was it South Carolina? When he was in chef school. He was on that island where that bridge got blown off, and well, he had to come home and finish at Johnson and Wales in Rhode Island, instead of Johnson and Wales in South Carolina. I stayed up all night watching the news and then I tracked him down and called him and had my Mom make sure he had money to get home. I made a tape of the new that night for him. Very scary stuff. This Republican National Convention is going to be a disaster.

  2. It’s reassuring to know that you’re on top of all of this despite your disc problems – hope you feel better every day and are back to feeling like yourself soon!

  3. Thanks for the info Geoff. My mom is flying up from Tampa next week for my wedding next weekend. So we are watching the weather like hawks and praying for the best case scenario.

  4. Not wishing any ill on Tampa, but a bunch of Republican politicians with no power….

    I love how they compare the weather with historical records. We really have no idea how many storms there were “back then.” A hundred years ago (or more), the only way anyone knew if there was a hurricane in the Atlantic was if a ship encountered it – and made it back to land to tell somebody. No doppler, no radar, no hurricane hunter planes, and very little communication with the islands in the path. Not to mention the fact that there wouldn’t have been the power lines to be torn down, or the fancy beach houses to be destroyed.

    Younger folks and those who didn’t grow up in the CT area hearing the stories from elders need to read about the ’38 hurricane. Folks had no idea it was coming until the roofs started blowing off. I can’t imagine what damage that storm would do today – we wouldn’t have the power back on for a year!

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