I could learn to enjoy the lazy life, but not like today. I’ve mostly been laying on the couch or standing. No sitting! No lifting! Nothing to irritate my tender parts.
I spent a little time this afternoon trading emails and phone calls with Peter Pach, Op-Ed Editor at the Courant. I’ve got the cover story in Sunday’s Opinion section. It’s a little look back at Hurricane/Tropical Storm Irene. We’re coming up on the anniversary.
Spoiler alert: If it came again today I’d expect the same result. Little has changed. And by historical standards Irene was on the low end of what a direct hit could be.
This is a good time to talk hurricanes because we’re now really in the season. I know it starts June 1, but the serious stuff (and Connecticut’s true susceptibility) doesn’t get going until late August. It’s like clockwork!
There are two systems currently running through the tropics. Let me dismiss Joyce first. I was worried about it for a day, but it doesn’t look like it will be strong and Joyce will most likely stay well out to sea.
Years ago storms like Joyce might have been missed. Be wary when you see us dip farther into the alphabet and talk about busy seasons. It doesn’t mean much. We’re quicker on the trigger today.
On the other hand Friday is the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew. August 24th saw the “A” storm. We’re now on “J.”
Isaac is another story. As I watched cable news today Isaac was a story because the Republican National Convention is next week in Tampa and because CNN reporters on-the-ground say the general population in Haiti have no hint it might come there! Wow.
Even if they knew where would they go?
The latest official forecast from the Hurricane Center has Isaac transiting Cuba the long way. Cuba is a mountainous island–hurricane kryptonite. Of course as soon as Isaac exits Cuba it’s in the Florida Straits then the Gulf of Mexico. Both are warm. Both will have minimal inhibiting factors.
What I’m getting at is even if Isaac comes off Cuba as a ratty depression conditions will be there for rapid reformation… or not. Hurricanes are quirky that way.
Earlier today Bill Karins MSNBC’s meteorologist said,
“I don’t see any way possible that Tampa’s going to be completely missed at this point.”
Seriously, Bill, I never would have said that. It’s Thursday. There’s a lot that can change. That’s more accuracy than science can provide.
I am also glad not to be Florida’s governor or Tampa’s mayor who both spent the afternoon blowing smoke and saying how prepared they are. Uh huh. I’m sure they’re ready for 50,000 extra souls all used to be treated like kings and being first in line. At least there will be a full complement of strippers and hookers (thanks again to CNN for that coverage).
More than likely the Republicans will have a poor impression of Tampa Bay weather, but no actual hurricane. It will remain the kind of romantic fantasy hurricane’s always are until you’ve experienced one first hand. That no electricity thing gets old in a hurry.
If Isaac survives Cuba the Northern Gulf looks most likely for landfall. No one is off the hook yet. It’s only Thursday