The 12z model runs are in, including enough of the European to get a feel for tonight. I’m not going to make many changes, though the turnover to rain inland looks a little quicker than my original read.
Everyone starts with a little snow early this (Wednesday) evening. On the shoreline snow will be replaced by rain within a few hours, with a brief interlude of sleet possible in between. The farther inland you are, the longer the period of snow. Duh!
The European is the coldest of the models, followed by the GFS then NAM. Just a few degrees will make a huge difference, because the rain/snow line in each of these scenarios is close by. I’m also using the Rapid Refresh model which is a very high resolution model that only covers 15 hours and makes discrete calls for most likely precipitation type hour-by-hour.
What you wake up to Thursday morning won’t be the peak accumulation. Rain will ‘settle’ the piles and add weight overnight. Expect a slushy inch or two near the shore with lesser amounts the closer you get to the Rhode Island border. Most of inland Connecticut sees 3-7″, except the higher elevations in the Northwest Hills where a foot could fall.
Because there will be a statewide change to rain before dawn, Thursday’s commute will feature slushy, weighty snow on the roads and sidewalks.
Along with the precipitation there will be strong winds from the northeast. Significant coastal flooding is likely at high tide Wednesday night! Wet snow and strong winds also means scattered power outages.
For Southern New England this is the type of storm we get a few times each winter–a moderate p-i-t-a. We will see worse before spring arrives.