Ugly Weather On The Way

The 12z model runs are in, including enough of the European to get a feel for tonight. I’m not going to make many changes, though the turnover to rain inland looks a little quicker than my original read.

Everyone starts with a little snow early this (Wednesday) evening. On the shoreline snow will be replaced by rain within a few hours, with a brief interlude of sleet possible in between. The farther inland you are, the longer the period of snow. Duh!

The European is the coldest of the models, followed by the GFS then NAM. Just a few degrees will make a huge difference, because the rain/snow line in each of these scenarios is close by. I’m also using the Rapid Refresh model which is a very high resolution model that only covers 15 hours and makes discrete calls for most likely precipitation type hour-by-hour.

What you wake up to Thursday morning won’t be the peak accumulation. Rain will ‘settle’ the piles and add weight overnight. Expect a slushy inch or two near the shore with lesser amounts the closer you get to the Rhode Island border. Most of inland Connecticut sees 3-7″, except the higher elevations in the Northwest Hills where a foot could fall.

Because there will be a statewide change to rain before dawn, Thursday’s commute will feature slushy, weighty snow on the roads and sidewalks.

Along with the precipitation there will be strong winds from the northeast. Significant coastal flooding is likely at high tide Wednesday night! Wet snow and strong winds also means scattered power outages.

For Southern New England this is the type of storm we get a few times each winter–a moderate p-i-t-a. We will see worse before spring arrives.

16 thoughts on “Ugly Weather On The Way”

  1. Hey Geoff! I am glad to see you back forecasting I have missed your no nonsense reports! I will be flying back to CT from Houston on the 8th so make sure you keep up these reports. Happy New year my friend,

  2. “We will see worse before spring arrives.” Thanks, Geoff, for that I know it is true, but I don’t want to hear it! (nanananana!! fingers in ears!!) How long before Spring? Can you guess I’m not a major fan of winter?

  3. Geoff – Good to see you back in the weather divers seat! Fortunate I have this week off, will be nice to see it all from inside! Take care and Happy New Year – 2013 will be better for sure!

  4. “Only” 83 days till Spring, Judy. Yes, I counted. I’m not a fan either.

    Glad to hear this will turn to rain overnight and will sleep through the ugliest part of it. Heard the worst of the wind is supposed to be along the coast. This year has cured me of ANY desire for a beach house, ever!

  5. Geoff, I am overjoyed to have access to your forecast ..I trust you, and it makes me feel better to hear the weather from you. You are missed. Thank you for keeping us updated

  6. Also happy to see you giving us the weather. I’m among the ‘quiet’ followers who have enjoyed your style and forecasts for longer than I want to rember.
    Keep ’em coming…

  7. Thanks for the update… clear, direct and on the mark as usual. Just starting to flurry a tiny bit in NW Connecticut. Guess if we’re getting that much snow I’ll go out this evening and bring the shovel up closer to the back door so I can get out to the car in the morning… *sigh*. Again I thank ya for reports that make sense, and that EDUCATE your followers so they understand what’s impacting the forecast. It doesn’t come out of a magic hat… lol.

  8. Thanks for the update. My wife and son are driving home from Lancaster, PA early Thursday morning to return to the Quiet Corner, and she was wondering how the weather here would be. It’s really hard to know whose forecast to trust on TV these days.

  9. Yay! I don’t have to keep relying on AccuWeather on my phone for my forecasts anymore. Glad your back in the meteorologist seat.

  10. G… your original forecast was very close to what we got in central NL Co. In fact, your most recent employer had it dead-on. Wonder if young Dr. Frank had any input from the wise weather owl?? 😉

  11. Geoff… in case no other live gigs are available, you can do what Todd Gross did in the Boston area a few years back… start your own weather consulting biz… seems like there are dozens of potentially willing “subscribers” out there — could be a nice tie-in to the forensic wx service..

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