How’d I Do?

As I write this our winter storm is getting set to exit. There’s a lot of snow on the ground. Some folks will get close to a foot.

OK — I got the accumulation totally wrong. Accumulation is forecast incorrectly more than anything else. It’s a forecast on a forecast on a forecast. Any small, but incorrect, calculation poisons the output.

It has been my mortal enemy since I started forecasting!

It didn’t really matter. The snow came when expected and will leave when expected. Most folks stay home with the numbers I had forecast over the past few days.

By tomorrow most roads should be passable and life will roll on.

19 thoughts on “How’d I Do?”

  1. I’m glad it’s ending – my son and his girlfriend are heading to NYC on the train in the morning. Hopefully all will be well by then!

  2. It was a really nice “down” day–stayed in, did some long overdue illustrations, drank coffee and listened to great radio on the net. I think your forecast was just right. Gave me time to “create”! πŸ˜€

  3. From what I’ve read and heard in the last couple of days and even this morning, NOBODY got the totals right, not just you so don’t sweat it. Everyone knows it’s not an exact science that is why it’s called forecasting.

  4. Hey, 1 inch, 2 inches, maybe 3? You must have meant per hour πŸ˜‰ Whatever! Do what you do. We all will still read it and enjoy it regardless!

  5. Geoff? I’m glad you’re not going with the naming nonsense like Comcast/NBC-Universal made The Weather Channel do. For reference, I shoveled twice all last winter here in New Britain. Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the third time I’m shoveling so far this year (besides November 8th and December 27th). We barely had a coating on Christmas Eve. The shovel wasn’t needed then. Before I close, enjoy the wind advisory tomorrow. Yuck! πŸ™

  6. Managed to repair dryer (heating element), shovel ohhh 6 inches at 630pm, reheat the last of the turkey soup and ready myself to shovel another 3 or so. Thank God for life in the city.

  7. I believe the last amount I read from you was between 3-6 inches and I believe we got about 5″ in Waterbury. Hard to tell as my son went out and shoveled when about 2″ fell as he had to shovel with one hand. He had his labral repaired beginning of Nov. and it takes about 6 months to get back the use of his arm, especially for shoveling. Sooooo my son’s wife expecting, his arm out of commission and my arm also hurt we went out every 2″ or so. Thankfully, last time he was out someone came by and we hired him for the morning and the rest of the winter!! So I feel your forecast was spot on Geoff. Thank you!!!

  8. Canceled plans to go out. Cooked, had a couple of pomegranate martinis and hubby dealt with 8″ of snow! Hopefully tomorrow the roads will be okay. Lots to do even though it sounds like no fun being outdoors. Thanks for your input. In Geoff we trust…

  9. Hey….You called for snow..and guess what it snowed!!! We even got bonus snow! It’s beautiful! Tis the season… So all good here!! πŸ™‚

  10. I was really hoping that you’d be wrong going the other way, and there would be much less snow than forecast. But there’s more … so even though I landed practically on-time and without incident at BDL tonight, my ride couldn’t get here from New Haven so it’s an airport hotel for me (and I’m not the only one!).

    I’m impressed by how well Bradley handles snow events like this, though. I’ve had scarier landings on a sunny day.

  11. You were right in the fact that the snow totals are unpredictable! Glad to have you on our side (weather wise). Nice to have you back , if at least on your blog. You have been missed!

  12. I thought the forcast regardless of what media outlet in CT you turned too was pretty good. We got somewhere between 6-8″ here in Naugatuck. Do we split hairs on forcasts for rain amounts? No, because rain amounts usually doesn’t affect us like snow amounts do. Bottomline is most of us that live in the NE should be used to the fact that we get rain, ice, and snow during winter. I’ve endured it for 44yrs! Sure, as I get older I’ve grown to not like it as much. Pretty to look at, pain to clean up. Anyway that my 2 cents, take it for what its worth… 2 cents. Take care in driving out there.

  13. I had no plans anyways and had things to do indoors. You did a great job with keeping us updated about the storm. Northeastern CT did get more as Stafford received 10-12 inches total.

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