The Snow Is Here

snowfall HRRR

When it comes to forecasting snow I am often the outlier. My forecasts tend to be conservative because over time the computer models tend to over forecast. Now, as the snow begins I’m tempted to up the accumulations, especially toward the Rhode Island border.

Is there a real difference between 2-4″ and 3-6″. Practically, no. The pain is just the same. The plows will be out. Cars will slip and slide.

The map from the HRRR (Rapid Refresh) model shows nearly all the state over the 6″ isopleth&#185. That seems high. Well, it seems high today… maybe not by tomorrow morning.

So, let’s go with 3-6″ with the lowest amounts on the shoreline where some rain will mix in. A few inches more are possible in Northeastern Connecticut.

The shoreline from the Connecticut River to the Rhode Island border is an especially difficult part of the forecast. You’ll get more moisture, but a significant percentage will be rain. Get the thought of powdery snow out of your mind.

Statewide from late afternoon into the evening the intensity will ramp up. Don’t be lulled out of the house only to find yourself in snow heavier than you’re comfortable with.

The snow will taper to flurries and snow showers after midnight.

Forecasting snow is the most difficult forecast we do in Connecticut. It’s nearly always a critical forecast for you. The pressure’s on.

&#185 – An isopleth is a line on a map connecting points of equal value. Isopleth is the generic term. There are specifics too, like isobars, isotachs, isohyets, etc.

18 thoughts on “The Snow Is Here”

  1. Geoff we are traveling on I80 west to Nebraska. We are at the pa border now so will the snow follow us the rest of the way home? Thank you! I miss you and your forecasts

  2. Yours is the only forecast I believe, Geoff – let’s hope 2013 brings Connecticut’s favorite weatherman back on TV. I hope for a happy new year to you, your family, and cute little Doppler!

  3. Thanks Geoff, I too was waiting for your update, I don’t bother with other forecasts outlets, they tend to over-forecast what is going to happen. In Geoff we trust!

  4. Thanks Geoff! I was waiting for your forecast. I don’t believe the weather channel and the locals are almost as bad. Hope to see you back on the air in 2013! Happy New Year to you and your family.

  5. I just checked, all we’re getting is rain, but it sounds like there’s a little ice with it in spots, just not around my mailbox!

  6. Thanks, Geoff. I trust your forecast more than any other. I was at the post office in Hamden earlier today, and the man in line in front of me was talking about the forecast, and he said he only believes yours. He was telling the clerk how he can still get your forecasts on line.

    1. Kay McC ~ I believe that was my husband. Yes, we are checking in with Geoff for his forecast all the time now. Aren’t you? Happy New Year! 🙂

  7. Thanks for doing these forecasts. I so agree with other posters that I find it hard to trust any of the forecasters on the tube.

  8. I guess my First Day Hike in Middletown (Wadsworth Falls SP) will require snow shoes or cross country skis. Guilford is pushing 8 inches now.

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