When it comes to forecasting snow I am often the outlier. My forecasts tend to be conservative because over time the computer models tend to over forecast. Now, as the snow begins I’m tempted to up the accumulations, especially toward the Rhode Island border.
Is there a real difference between 2-4″ and 3-6″. Practically, no. The pain is just the same. The plows will be out. Cars will slip and slide.
The map from the HRRR (Rapid Refresh) model shows nearly all the state over the 6″ isopleth¹. That seems high. Well, it seems high today… maybe not by tomorrow morning.
So, let’s go with 3-6″ with the lowest amounts on the shoreline where some rain will mix in. A few inches more are possible in Northeastern Connecticut.
The shoreline from the Connecticut River to the Rhode Island border is an especially difficult part of the forecast. You’ll get more moisture, but a significant percentage will be rain. Get the thought of powdery snow out of your mind.
Statewide from late afternoon into the evening the intensity will ramp up. Don’t be lulled out of the house only to find yourself in snow heavier than you’re comfortable with.
The snow will taper to flurries and snow showers after midnight.
Forecasting snow is the most difficult forecast we do in Connecticut. It’s nearly always a critical forecast for you. The pressure’s on.
¹ – An isopleth is a line on a map connecting points of equal value. Isopleth is the generic term. There are specifics too, like isobars, isotachs, isohyets, etc.