I have been out-of-touch the past few weeks. My head has been buried deep within GrADS,
The Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) is an interactive desktop tool that is used for easy access, manipulation, and visualization of earth science data.
‘Easy’ would not be my adjective of choice.
I have been very lucky to receive expert GrADS help from former Action News Weather Watcher, Professor Bob Hart at FSU and Greg Senia in Shelton, Connecticut. Greg is a Facebook friend, a former viewer.
In an amazing piece of luck I stumbled upon a guy interested in the same arcane software on the same computer experimenter’s hardware, the $35 credit card size Raspberry Pi. And, Greg has skills!
Learning GrADS is allowing me to update last night’s forecast graphically with my modifying parameters unchanged. So, this is apples to apples. it is based heavily on the GFS.
My forecast also take compaction into account. I wrote about that last night.
Again this evening the system looks to be farther south than originally progged. My friend Peter Mokover in Ventnor Cty, NJ could get buried (Peter is reading this and saying, “Oy.”) with nearly a foot of snow.
If I was on TV in Connecticut tonight I’d be hedging my bet down just a little. From a practical standpoint four inches of snow and six inches of snow produce the same amount of grief. As a matter of pride I want to be right. This far out no one knows with any certainty — certainly not me.
This is why getting scared a week out makes no sense. This forecast isn’t yet stable.
Here’s what we know, a large system will be nearby. The most likely ‘go’ time is Saturday morning after sun up. Connecticut will get enough snow to keep most people inside, but not a back breaker crippling system. I wouldn’t want to be on a boat south of Long Island this weekend.
It’s a cause for concern, but don’t go nuts.