Tag: Weather Service

Snow Worries… Even On Vacation

I can’t get away from it, even on vacation. For the past few days I’ve heard about the possibility of a snow storm Monday and so I’ve religiously gone to the computer and checked the numbers.

Since I’ve been forecasting, one thing has changed more than everything else: The amount of data available. That’s good and bad, because even though you want more data you can drown in it.

Recently I’ve started using a tool which makes analyzing the data a lot easier, BUFKIT. Not only is it fast and powerful… it’s free! If that weren’t enough, even the data to populate it is free.

The program was originally designed to help the Weather Service’s Buffalo office in forecasting Lake Effect Snow. It was only after it had been written that anyone realized how important it could be.

BUFKIT doesn’t replace what I’ve been using, it’s an enhancement.

I’m trying to think of the best way to explain… and it’s not easy. A weather map can show a few parameters for a single point in time over a large area. BUFKIT shows many parameters over a period of time for one specific geographic point.

The real power is being able to switch data in and out as needed, on the fly. What is important in July might be worthless in January. What is important Monday might not matter Tuesday. I’ve included a sample BUFKIT screen, but without the ability to manipulate what you’re seeing, this image hardly does BUFKIT justice.

Powerful programs aside, what does the data show for Monday? It does look like most people will wake to snow, though not a lot – a few inches north, less on the shoreline. Just as important, maybe more so, is the incredibly cold air and strong winds that will be in place by Monday night.

Winter doesn’t officially start until Tuesday!

How Tough Will Winter Be?

It’s that time of year. My email box overflows with people wanting to know what kind of winter this will be? Are they planning on leaving if my answer is too severe?

Lots of people make long range predictions – The Weather Service and Farmer’s Almanac to name two. I guess their forecast has value, but not to most ‘regular’ people.

We don’t live by the season. We live moment-to-moment. Trust me on this.

It could be unseasonably wonderful for two weeks, but if an Arctic blast comes, you’ll be feeling it and forgetting about that good weather in the rear view mirror.

So, as a rule I keep away from long term predictions. I’m thinking, maybe I’d be better concentrating on the next week, not the next two months.

Today, I got an email from someone asking about acorns. There doesn’t seem to be too many this year. Is that a sign?

Hey, if squirrels could accurately predict the weather, I’d be on the squirrel plan! I only stick with science because it works the best.

I wrote back saying acorns weren’t a predictor but actually a product of what has already happened. And then I realized, I don’t really know that. It sounds right – logical – but I really don’t know. So I scouted around.

We’re very lucky here in New Haven to have Yale University&#185. I checked their online directory and found the Director of the Forestry School. I was sure he’d know if acorns could predict the weather.

Yes you are completely right. the acorn crop is a reflection of past

weather. For the red oaks they take two years to develop – a poor

pollination period because of rain for a few days can mean acorn crop

failure two years down the road. Large acorn crops are therefore

unusual – once every ten years or so – and we think result when the

weather allows for it – “all the weather gods must be aligned”

Of course, it is part of the power of the Internet to be able to reach someone with so much knowledge, and then be able to pass it along. People might think I’m smart to know about acorns, but I’m just smart enough to ask questions.

Oh… there’s more to the story. I thought I was writing to him at Yale.

I am in Panama at present but if you need any further help give me a an

email buzz

We live in a wondrous time!

&#185 – I often wonder if the feeling is mutual, but that’s another story.

Amazing View

I have been looking at Hurricane Frances as it continues its journey north of Puerto Rico. The Weather Service radar out of San Juan has some very impressive images.

These are near realtime, so if you’re reading this in the archives, you’ve missed it.

As close as the storm seems, San Juan only has winds of 16 knots or about 19 mph.

Hurricane Questions

After the loss of life, and confusion, following Hurricane Charley, an interesting op-ed piece was written by Bryan Norcross, Chief Meteorologist from WFOR in Miami. You can read it here now, or click the ‘continue’ link at the end of this posting.

Norcross makes some interesting points, many of which I agree with.

Though we make our own forecasts at the TV station, we respect the Weather Service’s watches and warnings (though there are times I mention them, followed by what I think will actually happen).

The bigger problem occurs when watches and warnings are contradictory. Uncoordinated watches, warnings and statements for hurricanes, severe storms… even winter weather, is a continuing weakness of The Weather Service. All hurricane watches, warnings and statements should come from one place – period.

This certainly led to the disservice done to the people for Florida.

When local offices speak, they address problems from their own perspective, which is not necessarily the public’s. And, the public and media are probably concentrating their attention on the Storm Prediction Center (Whose idea was it to change this from the much more meaningful Hurricane Center?), which is where most people would expect to find hurricane info.

I work in Connecticut, a small state served by three NWS offices. Their statements often mislead the public because each only refers to the region for which they forecast.

Here’s an example. If Boston says a watch has been canceled for Connecticut, they mean their counties. No one in Connecticut could read a statement like that and understand that half the state is still under a watch.

During the winter, Litchfield County, our ‘snowbelt,’ might be under a lesser category of alert because the Albany office uses somewhat different criteria than the New York or Boston offices. When I post a map which shows a Winter Weather Advisory for Litchfield while there’s a Winter Storm Warning for our other counties (even though Litchfield has the more wintry forecast) it does nothing but confuse.

I have been to NWS ‘customer’ conferences in Washington, and have tried to sensitize them to this confusion. As you see – no change.

Continue reading “Hurricane Questions”

That L.A. Tornado Mistake

I really haven’t found much new information since I posted an entry about the Los Angeles Tornado Warning a few days ago. The few things I have seen point to a culprit other than the Weather Service.

I’m sure they are breathing a sigh of relief.

People in Los Angeles were left terrified that they were about to be hit by a monster storm.

The California governor

Sitting, Waiting for Thunderstorms

Even a few days ago, today looked like it would be a thunderstorm day. Lots of heat and humidity, a cold front approaching from the northwest, negative lifted index numbers (a very telling severe weather parameter). Movement from the northwest is the ‘favored’ direction for severe weather here in Connecticut.

As I type this, there’s a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for Litchfield County (far Northwestern Connecticut) and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it expanded later. Even without the watch there will be more thunderstorms late tonight throughout the state.

I’ve got one eye on the radar and the other scanning the watches and warnings popping up from the Weather Service. I’ll have to be more thoughtful than usual tonight in making decisions to break into programming, since we’d be breaking into ceremonies for President Reagan, not a sitcom or reality show. I understand the solemnity in this event.

I hate severe weather, which isolates me from many of my peers. There’s a weather oriented bulletin board I read from time-to-time. I constantly see meteorologists begging for storms (not that we can affect the outcome!

I wish I was in Lincoln…or St. Joseph, or a number of places besides southern MO. MCI forecast sounding for 00z tonight is impressive:

LI of -12, Sweat 681, SREH 319…enough for some nastiness. Normally I’d like to see the LCL a bit lower, but given the instability any negatives should be overcome. FSU…have fun!

Have fun!

Let me translate a little. MCI is Kansas City (in the same way LAX is Los Angeles and JFK is New York). LI is the previously mentioned lifted index. Sweat and SREH are two more severe weather forecast parameters. Most importantly, this guy wants to be there. And, he along with others, root for stronger storms! FSU is a forecaster who graduated from Florida State University.

Am I missing something? Won’t this stuff injure or even kill people? Property and business will be lost. People near the severe weather will be frightened.

News anchors don’t hope for a murder or fire so they can have a more compelling lead (at least I don’t think they do). Why are weather people so different?

No matter how long I work in this field I’ll never understand why some of my contemporaries are hoping for the worst. It’s just weird.

Directly to Summer

All week long it looked like we’d have some serious thunderstorms this weekend – and they have arrived. I just got an email from a viewer in Plainville mentioning hail. We have had at least a half dozen Severe Thunderstorm Warnings through the state, with another one coming in a few moments ago for the Hartford area (north of me).

If you’ve never seen one, they can be a bit sobering. I’ve added some emphasis to the operative text.

WUUS51 KBOX 240016

SVRBOX

CTC003-240100-

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

815 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…

SOUTHERN HARTFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…WEST HARTFORD…NEWINGTON…NEW

BRITAIN…HARTFORD…EAST HARTFORD…BRISTOL

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 811 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BURLINGTON…OR ABOUT NEAR TORRINGTON…AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…

BURLINGTON AND CANTON BY 830 PM EDT

AVON BY 840 PM EDT

FARMINGTON BY 850 PM EDT

WEST HARTFORD BY 855 PM EDT

NEW BRITAIN AND NEWINGTON BY 900 PM EDT

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS…FREQUENT CLOUD TO

GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS

IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.

REMEMBER…IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER…YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT…LON 4195 7308 4180 7321 4153 7274 4174 7255

$$

BELK/MCCORMICK

Over the years I have had issues with some of these. By and large the Weather Service does a good job. Unfortunately severe weather warnings take a great deal of coordination to be effective, and that’s often lacking since there may be multiple areas of concern simultaneously.

In a perfect world we’d go from a “watch” to a “warning.” The “watch is a longer fused condition and allows people time to think about what’s coming. As far as I can see, there was no watch issued today before our warnings.

I’ve had discussions with friends about this. The consensus opinion is, the Storm Prediction Center (which issues only the watches) uses criteria that are more sensitive to the severe weather that occurs in the Midwest. Once a system has already gotten strong, they are not anxious to issue the watch. On the other hand, the local Weather Service Offices are more responsive to what’s on the radar and better at issuing warnings.

My job (in my opinion) is to get out ahead of the watches and warnings. I always give the watches and warnings as soon as I can, but often temper or modify them based on my knowledge. Often I’ll tell people the worry is over, even though the watch or warning is still in effect.

There are people who do what I do, probably most of them, who love severe weather. Some seem to live for it. There’s no doubt it’s exciting, and humbling, but how can you be rooting for something that can injure, destroy and even kill?

One of the most difficult things I do is pass along Tornado Warnings. For me, it is the most difficult part of being on TV. I know when I say a tornado might be on the ground that I am scaring the living daylights (or whatever more powerful word you’d like to use) out of a significant portion of my audience. When I start going through the steps you should take, should you be in the path, that only reinforces the magnitude of the danger.

Again, some people hope for these events to happen. I don’t get it.

No Storm’s A Bullseye

Before I went to bed, I wanted to get a look at the 06Z&#185 computer models. The Weather Service now produces the computer guidance I see up to 4 times a day… more chances for agita.

Actually, the accuracy of these models is so much better than what I first used, 20 some odd years ago. Looking back, it’s a wonder I’m still sane!

Still, I’m never 100% accurate.

Earlier this evening, I was overly aggressive in my forecast. I called for 12-24″&#178, inland, less on the shoreline, which seemed reasonable… but everything had to fall in line for that to come true and that’s just too much to expect.

By 10:00, with a quick look at the 0Z eta and parts of the 0Z GFS (yes – eta is lower case, GFS is upper), I realized the storm would be leaving sooner and lowered my numbers. Now it was 10-15″ inland and 6-12″ on the coast. That’s still significant, but significantly less. Either way, it will fall faster than the plows can handle.

There’s no doubt the forecast will change again. No snow forecast is ever 100% accurate. Hopefully, I’ve been close and all it will need is a little tweaking as newer, fresher, hopefully more insightful data comes in.

Spring cannot come soon enough for me.

&#185 – All weather data is synchronized to UTC (Universal Coordinated Time), aka GMT (Greenwhich Mean Time), aka “Z” time. It is 5 hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time

&#178 – On my first broadcast at 5:00 PM, bad data from a graphic I made and thought I replaced, made air. It called for 15-30″. I made the mistake of not saying it was a mistake, but that I was considering lowering it. I should have said exactly what happened. It was foolish on my part. I know some people saw that number and will remember it even though I ‘revised’ it a few minutes later. This is my responsibility totally.

Something New On This Site

I remember the battle cry of the Internet entrepreneurs of the late 90’s: “Content is King!” I’m not sure whether that’s true, but I do enjoy adding fresh content to the website, especially if it is ‘live’ data.

That’s what I did today in adding weather advisories from Connecticut, where I live, and the rest of the United States. Of course, it’s not quite that simple. It was important to me that the data fit in with the look and feel of this site and that it be as fresh as possible.

The Weather Service has just started producing RSS feeds of this data. All I needed to do was find a way to convert it to a web readable format and I’d be on my way. I found a Perl program called JSMFeed.pl and installed it on the server. It produces a javascript file which can then be converted and inserted into my pages.

All I had to do was write the few short lines of code to do it. Considering I can’t explain any of what I wrote in the previous paragraph, this was going to be tough.

Javascript is a language I don’t know and have never written in. Luckily, once you know one programming language, you have an idea how to write in all of them, and the web is loaded with resources to help show you the proper usage.

Unlike high school, spelling and proper syntax do count. Misspell anything, or misplace anything in the program, and it won’t work… or worse, it will work but will subject your computer to an endless stream of gibberish.

My friend Kevin, who speaks a little javascript, was my mentor this afternoon. He’ll tell you he didn’t show me what to do. But having him on the phone allowed me to bounce ideas and move the process forward. Without Kevin, this wouldn’t have worked.

I also have to thank the folks (or person – who knows) at Creativyst, who donated this program for others to use for free.

If you’d like to try this new addition out, it’s on the right hand side of the screen. Just click a link and have fun.

Big Weather Monday

It was a busy afternoon at work today. A line of strong thunderstorms moved in from the west. There was certainly enough damaging activity along the line to pay significant attention. Last night’s computer model runs, and those from this morning, showed an unstable airmass for this afternoon. Here in Connecticut, that’s the best indicator of the chance for strong thunderstorms.

I’m mentioning this because the Weather Service never posted a Severe Thunderstorm Watch or a Tornado Watch. We went from nothing to a Tornado Warning! That’s somewhat jarring.

There has been damage from the cells that brought on the warning, but I can’t be sure if it was actually caused by a tornado. Probably not. We are more likely to get straight line wind damage.

To me, the toughest part of this is going on the air and asking people to move to a position of safety. I know I’m scaring the living daylights out of some people. It is not something I can do easily… not that I won’t when it’s necessary. It’s just that I won’t do it when conditions are marginal.

The big question that’s going to have to be asked over the next few days is, why no watch? This is a major question. It’s not like some farmer’s field in Kansas had a little corn knocked down. This is an urban/suburban area with moderate to high population density.

If the Storm Prediction Center didn’t feel this line met their criteria, they need to reevaluate.

Left hand, meet right hand

It was clear, early on, that Friday had a significant chance for severe weather. I was concerned that the computer models downplayed it somewhat. But Thursday, within a few hours of being run, they had already blown the forecast in Michigan… so the computers weren’t to be totally trusted.

A little activity started on Central New York State toward early afternoon and the Storm Prediction Center threw up a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the entire state, effective until 8:00 PM.

That was the right call.

A little background. I forecast the weather. The folks I work with forecast the weather. My competitors forecast the weather. But, we all leave watches and warnings to the Weather Service. The idea is to present a coordinated front, so as not to be confusing. In my 20+ years in weather I have heard few dissent from this concept.

After a watch is posted, it is the job of the Taunton, MA National Weather Service Office to put out a ‘redefining’ statement for all of Connecticut (even though they normally only forecast for 3 of the 4 northern counties and none of the shoreline). These are needed because watches are parallelograms and they don’t evenly fit within state or county borders. Without the redefinition, a watch area might include a small sliver of a state or something else equally confusing.

Taunton’s original statement only included their counties.

WWUS61 KBOX 221719

SLSMA

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH #880

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

120 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

CTC003-013-015-MAC005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-NHC005-011-

RIC001-003-005-007-009-230000-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

#880 UNTIL 800 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN CONNECTICUT THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES…

IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT:

HARTFORD TOLLAND WINDHAM

Then a correction to include the whole state.

WWUS61 KBOX 221744 CCA

SLSMA

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

AREAL OUTLINE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 880

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA …CORRECTION

143 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 880 IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-230000-

IN CONNECTICUT THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX

NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM

ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

But, by then the damage had been done. At the TV station our Weather Warn II computer was confused. It put up a Thunderstorm Watch and then alternated text for a “defined area” and mentioned the three original counties. If we would have aired it, it would have looked like the watch was only for three counties.

As I drove in, Kirk Varner, our news director (who reads this, I can’t blast him here), saw what was going on and basically shifted to manual. This system is supposed to work on its own, without intervention. At the moment, it can’t be trusted. But, thankfully, we had the right info on the screen.

Throughout the afternoon we saw scattered thunderstorms. They probably didn’t get to the ‘official’ severe limit, but were close enough to justify the watch box.

Thursday night, this same system had quieted down and then, with the watches expired, fired up. It even spawned tornadoes in Michigan on the ‘rebound.’

Tonight, the system again died down. And then a series of awful human judgment errors.

At 7:10 PM:

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>021-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-230000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

710 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

…PART OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT…

THE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE…

WESTERN…CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS…OR NORTHERN

CONNECTICUT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THESE AREAS AND THE

THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8 PM FOR RHODE ISLAND.

IT ALSO CONTINUES FOR SUFFOLK…NORFOLK…BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH

COUNTIES IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

But, the threat hadn’t ended. All of a sudden, in Southern Windham County, the storms fired up rapidly and ferociously.

CTC015-RIC003-230015-

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

751 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…

WESTERN KENT COUNTY IN RHODE ISLAND

SOUTHEASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT

INCLUDING PLAINFIELD

* UNTIL 815 PM.

* AT 747 PM…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER PLAINFIELD…MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…

COVENTRY AROUND 810 PM

WEST GREENWICH AROUND 815 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND/OR WIND STRONG ENOUGH TO

KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES. MOVE INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM

WINDOWS.

But, in Connecticut, these storms weren’t just over Windham County. They had crossed the border to New London County. In fact, by the time the warning went up, Northern New London County was seeing more action than Windham.

Windham County gets its warnings from Taunton, MA. New London County gets them from Upton, NY. No warning went up for New London County.

If there was reason for warning Windham County, there was reason for a warning to be issued for New London. This lack of coordination is a problem we face a few times a year, at the least.

At 7:51 PM, the watch and warning configuration in Connecticut was out of whack with what was actually happening. This system is supposed prepare and inform. It was confusing.

Thunderstorms continued, though weaker, until sometime past 10:00. Saturday will be a totally different weather animal – cooler and fresher.

I am not happy with what went on Friday. In many ways, I am powerless to change things unless I start ‘buying out’ of the unified watch and warning scenario.

I don’t think I’m ready for that… but I’m close.

——-

By the way, at 4:21 PM the dew point a Meriden, CT (KMMK) reached an unbelievable 79°! I can’t ever remember seeing a dew point that high in Connecticut.