Is the headline too provocative? Katia doesn’t look like Irene. It does look like a bunch of storms I’ve tracked over the years. Each of them has passed wide right, safely missing the U.S. mainland.
There’s no guarantee that’s what will happen now. In fact there’s no guarantee period. It’s just the most likely of an unlimited number of choices.
At the moment Hurricane Katia is way out in the Atlantic. It’s about a week away from whatever its closest pass will be. It will be watched closely.
I’ll let you know if I change my mind.