From NWS Upton, NY:
NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING THE INGREDIENTS TOGETHER FOR A DANGEROUS…HISTORIC BLIZZARD AS A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALOFT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC MON NIGHT…STALLING SE OF MONTAUK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. MSLP DROPS NEARLY 30 MB IN 24 HR FROM MON AM TO TUE AM… BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING
That’s pretty scary talk. It’s helpful to take a deep breath and consider for a moment.
If I was on-the-air today my biggest fear would be people who go to work Monday hoping to beat the storm home. To quote Rocket J. Squirrel, “That trick never works.”
No 2015 forecast is going to get the accumulation exactly right. That’s OK. One foot and two feet of snow are similar in their impact. Everything stops!
The most important thing to know is the timing. Once the afternoon arrives all travel bets are off. It only takes 1/2″/hour snowfall to get ahead of the plows!
Charge your cellphone and keep it at 100% as long as you can. Stay put. The potential is there for a dangerous travel scenario EVEN IF THE STORM UNDERPERFORMS.
Snow… big snow… even the occasional blizzard are all part of New England life. With a little prep the storm will inconvenience you, no more.
I have made forecasts like this before. In the modeling everything clicks and the storm maxes out. In real life everything ‘clicking’ and ‘maxing’ are a little more difficult. New York City has only received two feet of snow or more twice since records have been kept, 2006 and 1947.
Maybe “historic” is a word which should be reserved for after-the-fact. Dreadful will do for now.
Stay warm. Stay dry. Stay home.