Tag: location

On Today’s Snow

It’s a winter wonderland outside… if you like that kind of thing. As it turns out, I don’t.

Today, I got an email complaining about my forecast. At the same time I got a few others thanking me for my accuracy. One of the email senders is screwy. May I choose which?

Obviously, in becoming a meteorologist, I learned something about snow and wintry weather. It’s possible, however, my most interesting expertise comes from experience. It has to do with the practical differences in different snowstorms.

As a kid, you knew snow could be different. Ever ask if it was ‘packing’ snow?

Nowadays, before the first flake falls, I’m already trying to figure out if it will be packing snow. Snow can range from fluffy powdered sugar to semi congealed ice. It’s not easy forecasting which particular form the snow will take and that forecast is never 100% accurate – not by me nor anyone else.

Today is a perfect example of how the ‘fluff factor’ can vary. There is little in common between the snowstorm that Southern Connecticut received and the one that hit Northern Connecticut! Same system… simultaneous snowfall… different outcome.

The northern snow was light and fluffy. It accumulated gently.

The southern snow was loaded with sleet and freezing rain. It accumulated like the lead blanket the dentist throws on you before getting x-rayed. It will be tougher to clear and leave a slick and icing coating when crews try.

Some plowing contracts call for different prices depending on the inches of snow received. The shoreline plowers loses in this one. There, three inches will plow like six!

Are Forecasters Liable?

Drudge has linked to an article from a Central Florida TV station that’s interesting and worrisome.

Hotel Mogul Threatens Lawsuit Over Hurricane Expert’s Gloomy Forecasts

Rosen: Fla. Lost Billions Of Dollars Because Of Incorrect Storm Outlook

I’m a non-believer in seasonal forecasts because I think, by and large, they’re awful – aka, inaccurate. By the way, the same goes for all the Global Warming hype.

Here’s what I wrote to a viewer earlier tdoay:

Viewer: I’m just wondering what the outlook is for the 2007-08 winter season. A lot of snow, not much but colder. I heard we arent’ going to get much snow. Please advise. Thanks.

Geoff: I don’t believe in them. We don’t currently have the skill. Most long range forecasts end in embarrassment for the forecaster.

Should there be a monetary downside to a bad prediction? Neither Gray nor anyone other forecaster claims divine insight and 100% accuracy. He used the best techniques known to science.

More importantly, I don’t think anyone expects 100% accuracy.

I tend to think Harris Rosen’s rhetoric is bluster and no more… but who knows? Maybe he does have a case. I’m sure there’s a lawyer willing to help him.

But why go after Dr. Gray? There are other seasonal hurricane forecasts from forecasters with deeper pockets. AccuWeather comes to mind, though there are probably others.

I’ve got a dollar that says the attorney won’t forecast the outcome nor guarantee it.

Continue reading “Are Forecasters Liable?”

Tragedy In Bangladesh

The news coming out of Bangladesh is minimal tonight. The AP reports ‘at least’ 41 people dead from Cyclone Sidr, which came ashore Thursday.

That number will surely rise after this powerful storm hit one of the world’s most susceptible points.

Around 20 years ago, I was invited to Western Connecticut State University by Dr. Mel Goldstein to listen to Dr. Bob Sheets, former director of the National Hurricane Center.

Sheets talked about the potential for tragedy in Bangladesh… the futility of knowing a storm was coming, but there was nothing to do and nowhere to go.

The Ganges River Delta, where Bangladesh meets the Bay of Bengal, is low lying land. Storm tides easily wash well inland and up the river toward Dhaka, a city of 6,500,000.

This is a country of poor people, living in mainly flimsily constructed homes and shacks. Many people live directly on the water.

Sheets said one of the things done was build earthen berms, allowing people to rise above incoming water. It was low tech and not totally effective, but it was better than nothing.

Today’s solutions seem similar:

Thousands of coastal villagers moved to cyclone shelters

Ansel And Me

I put a PBS documentary about Ansel Adams on my Netflix queue a few months ago. Netflix doesn’t stock this title… and after a few months, it looked like they never would.

Enter eBay. The disk arrived Thursday and I watched it last night.

Beyond being a photographic master, Adams was an emotionally complex man. His childhood was marked by family financial problems and the San Francisco earthquake. He was conflicted between being a concert pianist and taking photos. He had both a wife and mistress.

I’m glad that I got to understand more about Adams, but I wish this doc would have given me more about his technique. How did he do what he did? Other than a passing mention of red filtering, there was little to help me as a photographer extend Adams’ work.

I didn’t even see my favorite Ansel Adams photograph, a non-panoramic documentary portrayal of a California farm worker’s family.

There was one thing I took from the show – Yosemite. I knew it was beautiful. I had no idea it was that awe inspiring.

Now I’m obsessed with Yosemite. I’ve got to go. It’s not quite that simple.

Yosemite is different at different times of the year. That especially applies to its waterfalls. Many start flowing with the snowmelt in the spring and stop during the dry California summer.

Summertime crowds at Yosemite are large. I’ve got to avoid that.

With the problem of TV rating periods added to the equation, April or possibly early June, seem best.

I’d like this to be a real photography trip. That means lots of walking with my photo bag and a tripod. It also means a methodical approach to the shots I take.

Maybe I’m biting off more than I can chew? Right now, it sounds like a plan.

My Beef With The Hurricane Center

Since Friday, I have traded emails with Ed Rappaport, director of the National Hurricane Center down in South Florida. He responded after I sent an email to two of his forecasters.

I was upset… No, I was livid the National Hurricane Center had decided to stop tracking and issuing bulletins and forecasts on Hurricane Noel Friday at 5:00 PM.

I’ve attached their final forecast discussion below. Two things to note. First, when they stopped their forecasting, Noel had already begun to take on non-tropical characteristics.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATED THAT NOEL STILL DISPLAYED A WARM CORE AND A FAIRLY TIGHT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS. SINCE THEN…THE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED AND IS NOW INSUFFICIENT TO QUALIFY NOEL AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION…THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM SUGGESTS THAT NOEL’S THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE IS BEGINNING TO BECOME ASYMMETRIC AND FRONTAL. THUS THIS WILL BE THE LAST NOEL ADVISORY.

Second, and much more importantly. Noel was going to get stronger!

BAROCLINIC FORCING SHOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY NOEL AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BOTH DEEPEN THE CYCLONE AND EXPAND THE HIGH WIND AREAS.

From a purely meteorological standpoint, NHC was correct. Noel was no longer a tropical system. They cover tropical systems – period.

That misses the point. The Hurricane Center’s job is to protect lives, not be meteorological purists.

When they stopped issuing forecasts, advisories, bulletins and maps, the job moved to the local forecast offices, like Taunton, MA and Upton, NY. Those offices have very capable forecasters (some of whom I’ve known for two decades).

Again, that’s missing the point.

By changing Hurricane Noel to an unnamed extratropical low, NHC signaled a diminished threat to the untrained public. That just wasn’t so.

There is already enough concern for public perception that the term “minimal hurricane” is no longer used in public bulletins.

Public safety officers, emergency managers and even broadcast meteorologists know exactly when and where to get data on tropical systems. It is specific and very different data than any other forecast product we get. The data from the local offices is totally different.

In the case of broadcasters, we all have equipment which automatically produces maps as the Hurricane Center’s data comes in! When that stopped, the ability to produce the most compelling and illuminating maps stopped. These maps made the case Noel meant business.

Based on the response I received from the director, I wonder if a “Hurricane of ’38” scenario would also see the Hurricane Center back off!

Something’s got to be done. That’s the bad news. The good news is, these are very bright people. I hope they find a way to change their policies before someone gets hurt.

Continue reading “My Beef With The Hurricane Center”

The Sun Is Orange, Like a Pumpkin

California Cousin Melissa pulled out her cellphone camera to shoot a little video while driving today. Though her home is no longer threatened, Orange County, California continues to be affected by the wildfires.

The video quality here isn’t the best, but it gives you an idea of the amount of ash and smoke suspended overhead. Meteorologically, it should have been a sunny day!


My Presentation

I took my hurricane presentation up to the American Radio Relay League this afternoon. The ARRL is the ‘mothership’ for ham radio in America. It’s located into Newington, under an hour north of the house.

I don’t want to do it too often, but I enjoy the opportunity to present before a live audience. The response is totally different than what you get on TV (obviously).

I have certain expectations. There are times when I hope for laughs, other times when I’m looking for attentive silence. Much of what I do is similar each time. The reaction isn’t always the same.

I used to find that puzzling. What I’ve come to realize is, audiences are different. That’s especially true with school audiences. There is an institutional personality that can guide everyone in the room to conform. That’s bad much more often than it’s good.

Today’s audience was very attentive and kind in their response. A friend in the audience commented later that my presentation didn’t have a tidy conclusion and payoff.

Unfortunately, he’s right. My subject is hurricanes and New England. There’s no neat payoff because a major hurricane up here (ala 1938) would be catastrophic. We’re not prepared in any sense of the word.

My story asks lots of questions but offers few answers.

A Surprise Lesson From Hurricane Dean

Recently, Hurricane Dean formed in the Atlantic, blew through the Lesser Antilles (Do they feel any inferiority with that name?), Jamaica, the Yucatan Peninsula and finally Mexico&#185.

Rightfully, Dean was classified a Category 5 hurricane. Top winds were reported as high as 160 mph. Dean was the first Category 5 storm to strike land as a Category 5 since Hurricane Andrew hit South Florida, 15 years ago.

The Global Warming chorus started up. “This is a sign of what’s to come,” was the message. “Look how much stronger these storms have gotten.” It’s a scary message.

Here’s the headline on a release I got a few days ago:

Hurricane Dean: A Sign of Storms To Come

Yikes – Dean Gets Stronger

Earlier this evening, around 8:00 PM, The National Hurricane Center issued a statement saying Hurricane Dean had top winds of 155 mph.

DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY

DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT…AND DEAN IS LIKELY

TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.

About a half hour later, based on recon data, Dean was upgraded to 160 mph.

000

WTNT64 KNHC 210034

TCUAT4

HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007

835 PM AST MON AUG 20 2007

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY

INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS

HAVE INCREASED TO 160 MPH…MAKING DEAN A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC

CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

There’s really no practical difference between 155 mph and 160 mph. Wind force increases logarithmically with the wind speed. But there’s a great perception difference, because at 160 mph, Hurricane Dean becomes a Category 5 storm.

Should Dean strike the Yucatan Peninsula as a Cat 5, it will be the first Atlantic Basin Category 5 landfall since Andrew, 15 years ago!

The only good news is, Dean will be sufficiently south of Cancun to produce less damage than a direct hit. It’s still going to crush the region mercilessly.

Why Is That 737 Heading To Jamaica Tonight?

Sometime today, probably mid afternoon, Jamaica will get creamed by Hurricane Dean. It’s not a pretty scenario. Imagine watching a train barrel toward you while you’re tied to the tracks!

In the midst of this tumult, a chartered jet is heading into Norman Manley Int’l Airport in Kingston.

How do I know? I went on FlightAware and looked to see air traffic in and out of Kingston. I can only see flights which will touch Jamaica and the U.S., but that’s enough for a feel.

The plane is question is a Boeing 737 owned by Ameristar Jet Charter, operating from Addison Airport near Dallas. It’s a plane normally used for charters and configured 100% first class. There are only 56 seats.

Why is it flying there? Is it a rescue flight of some type? If so, why a plane with so few seats?

More importantly, will it get out before Hurricane Dean shuts things down? Any kind of mechanical trouble would be very costly. In this case time is money.

At the last observation, winds at Kingston were light. It is just another sultry tropical evening in the heart of the Caribbean. You can see how people were totally surprised by these storms in the pre-electronic era.

There will be enough damage in Jamaica without a perfectly good 737 being ripped to shreds. I hope they refuel and return to Texas quickly.

Hurricane Dean – At The Antilles

Tonight, the Hurricane Center deemed Hurricane Dean’s winds to be sustained at 100 mph. Sure, why not?

I actually don’t think they’re blowing that fast. I’m basing my estimate on the look of the satellite imagery, surface observations and the Martinique radar.

The chain of islands Dean is approaching, the Antilles, will be quickly passed. Though Dean might damage them, they won’t slow Dean much at all. That seems unfair.

The next two days will probably see significant strengthening of this storm as it enters the Caribbean. On TV, meteorologists and others will point out Dean’s well defined and circular eye. We can’t do that quite yet.

The official pronouncement from the Hurricane Center calls for a period of Category 4 winds. There’s no certainty, but that seems a reasonable call. Dean is entering an area primed to be hurricane fuel.

Jamaica, the Caymans and the Yucatan Peninsula are all under attack if Hurricane Dean follows the computer guidance (amazingly in agreement with each other right now). All three areas are quite vulnerable.

After Katrina, some people were left with a false impression. There aren’t many places that can flood like New Orleans. Certainly none of the places I just mentioned floods that way.

The major damage from Dean will be related to strong, destructive winds. If you want the Katrina analogy, that’s the kind of damage produced on the Mississippi Coast.

A less sexy story, Mississippi a whole lot less news coverage than New Orleans. The damage was nonetheless catastrophic. Let’s hope I’m wrong.

Now It’s The Hurricane Season

My friend Bob, the meteorology professor, just sent me an email with not much more than this link. Half past midnight on Saturday. He knew I’d be checking the mail.

The Atlantic is open. Hurricane season has begun – even with no Atlantic hurricanes.

Yes, I know the season’s officially underway June 1. That’s minor league stuff. The real hurricane season is squeezed in from the middle of August to the middle of September.

For the past few days the GFS (a physics based, dynamic weather model) has been showing a strong, hurricane like storm, moving off the coast of Africa heading toward the states.

The GFS is not made to predict tropical weather, and it does so poorly. Still, when run-after-run shows the same thing, you look. They have at the Hurricane Center.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. HOWEVER…CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM…AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Bob’s impressive model outputs are of the same storm, what looks to soon be Dean. These maps are different from my normal charts, but the bottom line’s the same.

Though I said the GFS has been forecasting this storm, it hasn’t been consistent with the long range path. A few days ago it took a sharp right, missing Florida and sailing close to shore, but off the East Coast. Another run had the storm moving into the Gulf and making landfall between Galveston and New Orleans. That’s a pretty big difference!

Obviously, we don’t have a clue yet, except this looks like Dean. And, it looks like Dean will be strong.

The next month will be busy.

Placing Blame

Whose fault is it when heavy rains come and the New York City Subways flood out? You might be thinking, as I was, the subway system should have the capability to remove water quickly.

The NY Times reports:

A Tornado For Brooklyn!

This is pretty over-the-top. Early this morning, as a line of very strong storms moved through the region, an EF2 tornado (111-135 mph) dropped down over the Bay Ridge section of Brooklyn.

When I was in high school, my dad worked a few blocks from where this twister hit!

It’s an area on Brooklyn’s south shore, near the Verazzano Narrows Bridge and close to the cool waters of the harbor. It’s a surprising place to get this kind of weather event.

When I looked at the photos, I wondered, “Beirut or Bay Ridge?” It was really that significant damage.

After the jump, the Weather Service’s official pronouncement.

Continue reading “A Tornado For Brooklyn!”

The Minneapolis Tragedy

A bunch of us at work were getting ready to head to dinner when we caught the chopper video from Minneapolis. It was difficult to fathom at first. One picture couldn’t tell the story. You needed wide shots and close-ups to understand the magnitude of the situation.

How could the Interstate just fall down like that?

I counted the individual structures down and said to myself, “terrorism.” How could it be anything but?

First impressions can be so misleading.

I listened carefully as I scanned the cable channels covering the story live. No one was talking terrorism. That’s good. It would have been foolhardy to poison the story with speculation. We’re already on edge enough.

The more I looked, the more I realized I’d seen this before. Mianus, San Fransisco, the highway overpasses near the Northridge quake in California – Highways fall down! They shouldn’t. They still do.

Then I thought about that school bus – just a few feet from the edge. What must have gone through that driver’s mind as the roadway beneath his bus began to violently heave?

Over the next few weeks the backstory to this tragedy will dribble out. I can almost guarantee there were signs missed or procedures not followed. There always are.