Tag: socal

Bitterly Cold–A Matter Of Perspective

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Winter doesn’t officially begin for another few weeks. However, to meteorologists, winter has arrived!

So far SoCal has escaped. That’s about to change.

The map (above – courtesy HamWeather.com) compares Wednesday’s highs to the average for December 4. Cold air has dropped down from Canada. Instead of turning east, it’s mainly slithered south.

cali-freezeAlready NWS has issued Hard Freeze Warnings for the agriculturally important San Joaquin Valley. The Los Angeles office anticipates some frost or freeze as close as the San Fernando Valley (aka “The Valley”)

The official forecast has Los Angeles seeing upper 30&#176s and lower 40&#176s overnight all the way to the weekend.

A tease on Channel 7 warned of the “Bitterly cold weather” on the way.”

Bitterly cold? I guess it’s a matter of perspective.

So far this winter we’ve had the heat on around 25 minutes. I expect we’ll be multiplying that this week.

Last week I saw Grace, one of our neighbors, walking her dog Bailey. Grace was wearing a thermal jacket and scarf. It was in the sixties. I can’t imagine how she’ll dress for this.

Addendum:

Right after I posted this entry Ryan Maue put the map (below – click to enlarge) from the 00z European model on Twitter. It’s calling for a freeze all the way to the LA County coast by Monday! For SoCal that is serious weather.

lows Monday morning

Here Comes The SoCal Rain

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The radar image at the top of the screen was capture around 6:45 PM PST. The little green blobs represent rain.

It’s not raining here in Irvine yet, but it’s coming before the night is out.

SoCal’s location and topography shape so many things, including the terrible radar coverage we get! There are mountains and canyons scattered throughout the region. Radar, even NOAA’s NEXRAD radar can’t fight that adversity.

To really get good coverage you have to combine radars. Even then it’s iffy.

I watched some thunderstorms over the desert this summer. Two radars were within range and each painted the storm differently. This adjustment will take time.

I just took a look at the HRRR. Its high resolution, short time span, expertise hasn’t been in demand much since our late June arrival.

The latest run only covers through dawn tomorrow. Through that time the precip will get steadier.

The GFS continues the rain through Thursday with the chance for a few scattered afternoon thunderstorms. By the time we’re done over a half inch should fall. That’s substantial when you consider November as a whole averages just a little over an inch.

Today marks the beginning of our yearly turn toward the rainy season, aka: winter. For the next few days temperatures will stay in the low 60&#176s. That doesn’t sound terrible as winter goes.

Everyone says Californians can’t drive in the rain! It will be interesting to check the traffic tomorrow.

What Kind Of Child Have We Raised?

It’s cloudy here in SoCal. Cool too. We’ve had a thimble full of showers. The ground’s wet, but not enough for a puddle.

My phone rang a little while ago. It was Stef calling from Hollywood.

“I love this weather,” she said. “My windows are open.”

Wow! What has happened to my little girl? Has she become so jaded by endless sunshine she’s lost all perspective?

She’s rebelling against sunny and 72&#176!

Stef’s been here three years. Maybe it’s gotten to her? Maybe you can get tired of too much of a good thing?

Nah.

The Correct Way To Be Excited About Snow SoCal Style

The weather forecasting computer models move a low pressure system south from Nevada, tapping into some offshore moisture and bringing SoCal a decent chance of precipitation late tonight and Wednesday.

No big deal. Albert Hammond lied. It does rain in Southern California… just not often.

Here’s the exciting part. The atmosphere will be cold enough to see snowfall on some mountains higher than 5,600 feet Wednesday evening! We’ve got one of those visible from my bedroom window, Santiago Peak at 5,689 ft. It’s 12.5 miles away.

It’s possible the snow will be mixed with rain up there, or the rain/snow line might drift higher for this storm. You know how elusive good snow predictions are. Beyond that, the ground is still very warm. Snow sticking on Santiago is no certainty.

However, this was a pre-California fantasy for Helaine and me–snow visible from the house while we walk around in shirtsleeves. We are hopeful.

Bring it!

It’s Santa Ana Season

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There’s an interesting feature on the weather maps/charts this morning which will affect SoCal before the week is through.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE FIRST REAL SANTA ANA DAYS OF THE SEASON. — Southwest California Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA

Santa Ana winds blow from the east through the mountain passes. They’re ‘katabatic’ or downslope winds, warming as they descend. Just like putting your finger over the end of a garden hose, squeezing these winds through the passes makes them stronger.

Starting Friday we’ll begin to feel hot, dry, strong wind.

In this area, which hasn’t seen widespread rain for months, Santa Ana winds represent extreme fire danger!

The BUFKIT chart at the top of this entry (click to get a larger view) is from the Monday 9/30/13 12Z GFS model for John Wayne Airport here in Orange County.

The timeline is opposite of what you expect. Today is on the right. As you look farther left you look farther into the future. The orange line is temperature, green line dew point and shading humidity.

On Friday morning the dew point plunges. High pressure is nosing into the region which will turn the wind from west to east. A very shallow layer of high humidity in place Wednesday and Thursday, the marine layer, will disappear. Its low clouds and gloom will be gone.

I did some quick back-of-envelope calculations from the chart at the top of this entry. With a Friday high of 88&#176 and dewpoint of 16&#176, the relative humidity will be around 7%. That’s extremely dry… crazy dry.

The danger of fires quickly spreading will be high. I expect to see Red Flag Warnings in place Friday.

Every area has its weather peril. This one’s ours.

It’s scary because fires can quickly grown beyond the ability to control them. It happens every year.

California Gardening

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My friend Mike called today. He lives in Nashville, but he was raised in California. He said he was reliving his California years through my blog.

I’ve heard variations on that theme more than once.  California is different. There’s lots to absorb.

One of our SoCal goals was to grow fruit. What kind? Who cares.

Our patio area has two little lemon trees. They’re supposed to grow to six feet. They’re not quite two feet now.

Each tree has loads of tiny lemons and one larger one.  Do they glue one bigger one on at the nursery as a come on?  It seems too good to be true.

I’m unsure whether to thin the trees or let all the fruit grow. This will be a learning year.  As long as I don’t kill them we’ll consider the garden a success.

I’m also unsure when the fruit will be ready to pick, or if there will even be pickable fruit in year one.

Originally I was watering my garden seven minutes a day. Then came the mushrooms! I’m down to three minutes every other day. No one’s complaining. I might have discovered the sweet spot.

Helaine read an article that said I can plant tomatoes in the fall. That’s crazy.

Maybe the movie Endless Summer should have been about California gardening.

Clouds And Storms On An Atypical SoCal Day

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I’m doing a little radar watching this afternoon. The weather is decidedly not SoCal-ish! It is hot. It is {sigh} sticky. Nearby John Wayne Airport hit 97&#176 with a dew point of 66&#176–and that’s with a seabreeze!

That’s the kind of heat and humidity we left Connecticut to escape!

This is a good day for me to brush up on my forecasting skills. Weather everywhere is created by the same forces through the same laws of physics. However, most places have special circumstances which make certain types of weather more or less likely.

That’s climatology and it’s helpful to consider while forecasting.

I saw this singular towering cumulus cloud (above) as we drove toward the house this afternoon. It’s on the far side of a mountain range. The mountains, some nearly 6,000 feet tall, are 10-15 miles from here. That big cloud is another 15 miles out.

Radar shows it’s a prodigious rainfall producer. There’s a Severe Thunderstorm Warning plus a Flash Flood Warning for the desert communities it will pass over. Moreno Valley has nearly 200,000 people. It’s not all barren out there.

Because the storms are hardly moving, all the rain will be concentrated in a small area. Flash flooding is a major concern in the desert where rainfall doesn’t seep into the ground as easily as it does in other places and where steep canyon walls funnels water into a few low lying spots.

today's-thunderstorm-setup

Most likely there will be no storms where I live. There are mountains between me and the thunder. It’s unlikely (not impossible) any will fire up on the coastal side.

During the winter these mountains will create a rain shadow to the east. Showers here will often fall apart before they get to the desert.

I’ll also be able to look from our bedroom window and see snow on the highest nearby peaks a few times each winter, even when it’s shirtsleeve weather here!

I’ve got to get used to these microclimates if I’m going to stay current as a forecasters.

Yes, the weather here is usually gentler than back east, but there are a huge number of microclimate zones that allow very different weather over a very short space. Knowing them will take practice.

Perseids Meteor Shower Versus The Marine Layer

Tonight should be the best viewing for the Perseids meteor shower. I’ll be out with my camera to try and catch a few burning up as they descend toward Earth. Originally I was going to head to the beach, figuring an unobstructed ocean view would be great. Bad planning on my part!

I’ve reassessed. Cousin Michael and I will head inland instead.

As a meteorologist I’m used to factoring large bodies of water into the forecast. In Connecticut the influence of Long Island Sound often meant the difference between snow and rain on the shoreline.

Here in California our nearby body of water is the Pacific Ocean. Mo water. Mo problems.

Chilly water cools air near the surface making it more dense than the atmosphere above. In meteo terms, it’s an inversion.

Practically speaking this ‘marine layer’ acts as an atmospheric cap helping form low overcast. Sometimes it’s low enough and thick enough to form fog. Sometimes it produces drizzle.

As the day goes on, the Sun’s warmth breaks the cap and the clouds disappear.

The cloudy influence of the marine layer is pretty dependable during our warm weather season. Say the words “June gloom” and locals understand immediately, even in August.

Our home is 12 miles from the water. Since our late June arrival, marine layer overcast has rolled in nearly every night. If I went to the beach to see Perseids, I’d see nothing!

The first mountains east of us should block the clouds. They’re not very far. That’s where we’ll head.

I’m writing this at 9:20 AM. The Sun is beginning to break through after another overcast night. The marine layer cycle continues.

Lunch On The Lot

I had lunch with a friend I’ve known since second grade. Yes, that’s a long time. His office is on the 20th Century Fox lot. He calls it “the campus.”

I am really lucky. He is a good friend. Very smart with an interesting job in a business I still love. And he likes to talk about it.

The location is a bonus.

I drove from Hollywood, down through Beverly Hills and Century City to the large, yet unmarked entrance on Pico.  Parking for guests is two levels below ground. I don’t want to be there for “The Big One.”

A real movie lot is a fascinating place. Not only are there sound stages, there’s a whole city complete with NYC subway entrances. Signs on stores and lightposts are currently ‘selling’ the street as Washington. Trust me, you’ve seen this street a thousand times.

The lot is filled with people on-the-move. It is a factory producing visual entertainment.

We had lunch on campus then headed back so I could meet someone he works with.  My request.  He’s another broadcast exec, a larger than life figure not that well known outside the business. He is a programming revolutionary.

He was exactly who I hoped he’d be. No disappointment!

I took an indirect route back to my car. Sightseeing. I’m not on a lot that often.

Finally I headed to the garage elevator down to my car. As the door was about to close, Joel McHale, host of The Soup (among other credits), walked in.

He is much taller than he appears on TV. He is also ripped.

I told him I was a fan. He was gracious and funny. Another good impression.

We have chromakey in common.

Next stop The Valley. My friend (and best man) Howard is a manager.

Nice office. High floor. Killer view.

Howard makes deals for a living. I like listening to his side of phone conversations.

We schmoozed. Friends schmooze.

Really nice day.

Albert Hammond Lied–It Rains In Southern California

NEXRAD radar image s KVTX BREF1

I was in bed and asleep at the unusually early (for me) hour of 2:00 AM. That’s when the downpours came to Irvine. It was as if someone had thrown the rain switch. Nothing to everything in a flash!

All the windows were open. Thankfully there was little wind. It didn’t rain in.

Summertime rain in SoCal is the exception. In fact, for our first month in Orange County this is my only run-in&#185. Nearby John Wayne Airport reported 1/8″.

Last night while out walking Helaine noted, “The sky looks bigger here.”

Fewer low and mid level clouds mean fewer obstructions. Clouds are often seen when they’re farther away. The sky does look bigger.

We’re going to a restaurant at the beach this evening for my birthday. It should be sunny by this afternoon. I’m looking forward to sunset over the Pacific.

Like I said, summertime rain here is the exception.

&#185 – Helaine was out shopping a few weeks ago when she saw a handful of drops on an otherwise lovely day.

We Now Have TV

It was a mutual decision. This afternoon Helaine and I came to the conclusion the loft needs a larger TV than the one coming from Connecticut.

All the pent up spending urges we’ve been kept in check for thirty years are coming out. At this point, what’s a TV?

As it turns out, prices continue to plunge. I got a 50″ screen which, judging by what’s being shown at the store, isn’t that big anymore. It will be wall mounted like a trophy I bagged on safari.

TVs are getting lighter. Helaine wanted to help, but it was well within my meager limits.

I plugged it into both wall and U-verse box, then turned everything on. Victory!

The U-verse box defaults to 720 video. This TV does 1080. That means U-verse is shipping these boxes set to a mode which doesn’t bring the best picture! It does save them bandwidth on this IPTV system… though not at my house.

There are lots of channels. Right now my eyes are glazing over.

Vin Scully is on-the-air tonight. He’s calling the Dodger’s game. He works alone in the booth at 85. Still sharp. Still in the game. That same vocal cadence, still there.

It’s weird to be on PDT. America revolves around Eastern Time. However, Phils games start at 4:05p out here and we’ll see the first NFL game at 10:00a.

An area rug for the family room arrived today. It was moved a few times before we agreed on placement. Very nice. Still a little sterile without our art and photos and stuff. We need more color and contrast.

The mattress for the master bedroom arrives Saturday morning.

“Sometime between eight and eleven,” the guy on the phone said. He paused before continuing. “But it will be closer to eight. You’re my first stop.”

We move out of the second bedroom tomorrow night.

Our home furnishings crossed the Rockies today. They should be at our house first thing Sunday morning.

The house becomes more-and-more ours every day.

Our plan was to swoop in and do everything at once. We didn’t want to recreate our house in Connecticut. This place was planned to be smaller, but still warm, comfortable and functional.

So far it’s working.