Tag: location

More Charley

It must have been a shock for people on the West Coast of Florida to wake up this morning and find that Charley was going to hit the coast a little farther south than expected. Instead of Tampa Bay, the storm headed to Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda and Fort Myers.

As soon as I woke up this morning I switched on the computer and started to look at the radar, then surface observations, then the computer models.

I bet this kind of weather ‘spikes’ the ratings at The Weather Channel. Personally, I can’t watch. I’m not sure why. Maybe it’s because I like a lot more detail. This is not to take away what they’ve accomplished as far as making a name for themselves. I’m just not their target.

As was the case last night, the Weather Service NEXRADs did an fantastic job in displaying this storm. The eye was tight and circular – the sign of a strong hurricane.

As I’m typing this, I’m looking at the Tampa radar, still seeing the eye of the storm as it approaches Orlando. That it still has a discernible eye this late in the game surprises me.

Now it heads this way. Even though it won’t be a hurricane there might be enough storm left to worry about for Sunday. You know what – even if there isn’t, I’ll worry anyway. That’s what I do.

Small Temporary Change

The current conditions box on the right side of the screen has been moved from my home to Tampa, Florida to reflect conditions as Hurricane Charley approaches.

Watching Charley

Tonight, at the end of the news, Ann kidded that I’d be up all night watching Hurricane Charley. That really isn’t far from the truth. I’ve already taken a few peeks.

I’m just in awe of this storm. And Charley is different than most in that it will be very watchable with high resolution precision from the comfort of home.

The Internet has taken nearly all the information I use and made it available to anyone for free. It’s pretty spectacular. I don’t think there’s any other discipline that has so much of its raw data available, and most of it in real time. It wasn’t that many years ago that radar and other data were only available by subscription.

The best view of Charley has been from the Key West NEXRAD. NEXRAD stands for ‘next generation radar,’ but it’s commonly referred to as WSR88D (a reference to its contract designation) – probably because that’s nerdier.

With its incredible electronics and computer assistance, the radar sees precipitation nearly 300 miles out. I was able to look at Charley while he was on the far side of Cuba. Even at that distance the eye was easily seen. By animating a series of images, the counterclockwise rotation was also visible.

Now that Charley is north of Cuba, and back in the open water, I’m looking for signs that he might have weakened over land. At this moment the eye is slightly elongated. It’s not enough to signal disintegration or even significant weakening. Actually, at this point, conditions are perfect for re-intensification.

At the Dry Tortugas weather buoy, in the Florida Keys, the barometer is falling and the wind picking up. It’s only sustained at 20 knots now, but that will rise. The water temperature is about 87&#187.

If you had been clinging to the buoy for the past few hours you would have noticed the sea coming up with more wave action. Strong thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds would move through sporadically. You would have seen rapidly moving clouds, but it would have been difficult, if not impossible, to realize they were part of a rotating pattern.

As far as I can tell, hurricane hunter aircraft have been flying through the storm tonight, even as it was very close to Cuba.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 973 MB…28.73 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 14 FEET IS PROBABLY BEING EXPERIENCED

ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA NEAR AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER

MADE LANDFALL. THE SURGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE HURRICANE

MOVES AWAY FROM CUBA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS

BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM SURGE

FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE

WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

When you consider the elevation of Key West, you realize a 2-4 foot forecast for storm surge is a big deal. The elevation of the airport is only 15 feet above sea level. A lot of the Key West coastline and other keys and islets will be under water.

A storm surge of 10-13 feet in the Tampa Bay area would be a natural disaster of huge proportions. There’s a large population near the coast who have never experienced a storm like this before. Many of the residents are older and evacuation will be difficult. Hurricane experts consider the area from Tampa Bay south to be our second most susceptible area after New Orleans.

Storm surge can be the big killer in hurricanes. In the Hurricane of 1900 all of Galveston was under water for a time!

For locals, any reference to “the storm” is obvious. If someone says a house survived the storm, there is no doubt it predates Sept. 8, 1900.

If people say they had family who died or survived the storm, there is no doubt that they are referring to a family history that goes back more than 100 years.

For in Galveston, “the storm” always refers to the hurricane that tore across Galveston on Sept. 8, 1900, and left the city in ruins.

Those who managed, either by sheer luck or the grace of God, to survive the storm faced the challenge of moving forward. – Heidi Lutz, Galveston County Daily News

I’m waiting for the next run of the GFDL computer model to come out and then I’m off to bed. Even with the heavy iron of computing thrown at these models, we’re already 7 hours 30 minutes past the initialization data, and it’s not available. I’m told there’s so much traffic trying to download the numbers that they’re just dibbling out. I hope the Hurricane Center has a more direct pipe.

Blogger’s note – I have links on the right side of this page which lead to updated hurricane information from the Tropical Prediction Center.

Looking to the Future

Much of my work time is spent looking into the future. I’m pretty good at it. Of course the farther into the future I predict, the less accuracy I have. On top of that, the more events that have to happen in a distinct order, at a distinct time, the less accuracy I have.

It is easy to look at the computer generated maps I get, with weather features neatly placed in exact spots, and assume that’s exactly where they’ll be. It doesn’t always work that way – though sometimes it does.

I’m giving you all these “CYA” statements before I tell you about some projections I saw earlier today. If what I saw comes true, this will be a terrible week here in Connecticut… actually, that’s an understatement. What I saw if it comes out exactly as I saw it would be the precursor for some pretty significant flooding.

The setup of two tropical systems in rapid succession is just what happened prior to the Connecticut floods of 1955. Since then flood control dams have been built in Litchfield County. It is doubtful the same thing would happen in the same place today. Still, there is just so much rain that can be dealt with before some significant flooding takes place.

Right now it’s Tuesday with the first tropical system scheduled to be here Friday. I’m not sure it will get us. I’m less certain of Sunday’s run in with the second storm. But the maps certainly have my attention right now and I will be on the edge of my seat as each new run of the models come in.

I seldom want to be wrong. I’ll make an exception here.

Stay Safe… Except Me

Hurricane Alex has just left the East Coast. Within days it will be a memory, absorbed into the normal flow of extra-tropical weather. As hurricanes go, it was small and its impact to the Carolina’s will be discernible, but small.

Since Alex was never thought to be a huge storm, I didn’t get to cringe at the sight of TV reporters, and weather people, standing in the thick of it all – all the while telling others to stay inside where it’s safe.

I think this is right up there with tobacco companies telling me not to smoke. Where’s the credibility.

I know where this came from. Dan Rather got his TV chops covering a hurricane in Texas. It was because of that very gritty series of on-location reports that he was plucked from obscurity. Good for Dan.

The problem is, all the warnings we give on TV are correct. Hurricanes are dangerous storms. Being in the midst of an open area, adjacent to open water, with a hurricane coming on shore, is going to get someone killed.

I have watched live shots as reporters tilted off vertical, into the wind, in order to stand. In the background of those shots I’ve also seen debris and building materials turned into missiles. That they didn’t find a reporter is only luck.

In a larger sense, aren’t we sending the wrong signal to viewers? It’s a ‘do as I say’ mentality that will entice others into harm’s way.

You might be saying, “But Geoff, you’ve flown through the eye of two hurricanes. Isn’t that a little crazier and a lot more dangerous?”

Thanks. I’m glad I asked that.

Flying through a hurricane is totally different. The planes are specifically outfitted to withstand the buffeting they get. The planes are flown at an altitude where there is no solid debris to run into. And the well trained crews have the benefit of radar and other instrumentation to know where, and where not, to go.&#185

I also won’t criticize tornado chasers. As far as I can tell, no one has ever been hurt while chasing a tornado. These are compact systems with reasonably predictable paths. It is quite reasonable to watch a tornado safely from a distance, if you know what you’re doing.

Back when I did PM Magazine/Buffalo I used to joke around about the fact that you can’t get hurt if you’re in front of a camera and tape’s rolling. Of course that’s just not so. Unfortunately, it looks like a lot of the reporters in big storms feel just that way.

I hope this isn’t the year when something tragic happens. That time is coming. It’s not a question of if, but when.

&#185 – Hurricane Hunter planes never fly directly into the eye. They always turn into the wind and cut diagonally to the eye. This makes some of the terrible force near the center nothing more than a ferocious headwind.

Hurricane Alex

This link will get stale quickly, but right now, Hurricane Alex looks amazingly potent as it moves just off the North Carolina coast. The weather website at College of DuPage in Illinois has some of the best imagery for this.

Haiti Floods

Every time I read the wire service reports about the deaths in Haiti, the death toll grows. That this disaster has happened, and happened in such a horrific way shouldn’t be a surprise to those who know the island of Hispaniola, it’s weather and the history of the eastern side.

It is no one’s fault that two feet, or more, of rain has fallen between May 18-25 (here’s a satellite estimate from NASA’s TRMM project). No one can be blamed for the mountainous interior of the island which forces runoff to congregate in swift flowing rivers. But decades of irrational land management are surely a contributing factor in this devastation.

I have been to Hispaniola three times. My family and I vacationed at the Club Med in Punta Cana, Dominican Republic in the 90s. In the 70s, I visited Club Med’s “Magic Isle” village on the Haitian side.

I remember leaving the airport in Port au Prince and driving cross country to the club. I had been to places marked with poverty, but never to the extent that I saw there. We crossed rivers, marked with signs warning of malaria. As I remember, I had to medicate with quinine for malaria protection.

The club sat on the coast with a magnificent view of rugged mountains. Though in the tropics, these mountains were barren – totally devoid of trees. After a few days at the club I was told the forests had been slashed and then the wood burned for charcoal. The mountains were left as they were.

Even in California, a contributing factor to mudslides which occur many winters are the removal of plant life during brush fires. But, in California the problem is recognized and often there is remediation. That was not the case in Haiti.

From the Toronto Star:

The mountains on the Haitian side of the devastated area rise to heights of 1,500 metres or more, and the region

Now Tornado Warnings

Still no watch box up, but Tornado Warnings are now in effect for Eastern Connecticut. A Tornado Vortex Signature was picked up by the Long Island Doppler radar.

Yikes!

Directly to Summer

All week long it looked like we’d have some serious thunderstorms this weekend – and they have arrived. I just got an email from a viewer in Plainville mentioning hail. We have had at least a half dozen Severe Thunderstorm Warnings through the state, with another one coming in a few moments ago for the Hartford area (north of me).

If you’ve never seen one, they can be a bit sobering. I’ve added some emphasis to the operative text.

WUUS51 KBOX 240016

SVRBOX

CTC003-240100-

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

815 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…

SOUTHERN HARTFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…WEST HARTFORD…NEWINGTON…NEW

BRITAIN…HARTFORD…EAST HARTFORD…BRISTOL

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 811 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BURLINGTON…OR ABOUT NEAR TORRINGTON…AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…

BURLINGTON AND CANTON BY 830 PM EDT

AVON BY 840 PM EDT

FARMINGTON BY 850 PM EDT

WEST HARTFORD BY 855 PM EDT

NEW BRITAIN AND NEWINGTON BY 900 PM EDT

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS…FREQUENT CLOUD TO

GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS

IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.

REMEMBER…IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER…YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT…LON 4195 7308 4180 7321 4153 7274 4174 7255

$$

BELK/MCCORMICK

Over the years I have had issues with some of these. By and large the Weather Service does a good job. Unfortunately severe weather warnings take a great deal of coordination to be effective, and that’s often lacking since there may be multiple areas of concern simultaneously.

In a perfect world we’d go from a “watch” to a “warning.” The “watch is a longer fused condition and allows people time to think about what’s coming. As far as I can see, there was no watch issued today before our warnings.

I’ve had discussions with friends about this. The consensus opinion is, the Storm Prediction Center (which issues only the watches) uses criteria that are more sensitive to the severe weather that occurs in the Midwest. Once a system has already gotten strong, they are not anxious to issue the watch. On the other hand, the local Weather Service Offices are more responsive to what’s on the radar and better at issuing warnings.

My job (in my opinion) is to get out ahead of the watches and warnings. I always give the watches and warnings as soon as I can, but often temper or modify them based on my knowledge. Often I’ll tell people the worry is over, even though the watch or warning is still in effect.

There are people who do what I do, probably most of them, who love severe weather. Some seem to live for it. There’s no doubt it’s exciting, and humbling, but how can you be rooting for something that can injure, destroy and even kill?

One of the most difficult things I do is pass along Tornado Warnings. For me, it is the most difficult part of being on TV. I know when I say a tornado might be on the ground that I am scaring the living daylights (or whatever more powerful word you’d like to use) out of a significant portion of my audience. When I start going through the steps you should take, should you be in the path, that only reinforces the magnitude of the danger.

Again, some people hope for these events to happen. I don’t get it.

US 1 – BRAZIL 0

The unnamed, South Atlantic hurricane did come onshore last night. Unfortunately, what the American hurricane experts said was right and what Brazilian meteorologists said was wrong.

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil – A whirling storm battered the coast of southern Brazil on Sunday, killing two people, injuring at least 39 others and destroying hundreds of homes, civil defense officials said Sunday.

American meteorologists said winds exceeded 74 mph, making the storm the first hurricane on record in the South Atlantic. Brazilian scientists originally disagreed, but on Sunday they acknowledged the winds could have been as high as 94 mph _ well above hurricane strength.

As I said yesterday, I was rooting for the Brazilians to be right. This is why!

What Are They Thinking In Brazil?

The only hurricane ever seen in the South Atlantic continues to move toward the East Coast. The National Weather Service Hurricane Center, here in the states, says it is a minimal hurricane with top winds over 75 mph. That poses a threat for Brazil’s coast.

On the other hand, the Brazilian meteorological experts say, “no it’s not.”

Here’s what the AP reported late Saturday, starting with a quote from Meteorologist Dr. Gustavo Escobar of the Brazilian Center for Weather Prediction and Climatic Studies:

“Winds and rains will not be significant, so we don’t need to alarm the population,” Escobar said by telephone.

Winds in nearby Florianopolis, a city of 700,000, were only about 12 mph, rainfall was mild, and no damage was reported, said meteorologist Kelen Andrade.

Jack Beven, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said the eye of the storm was near 29 degrees south latitude and 48 degrees west longitude by Saturday evening. That would place it about 50 miles east of the city of Laguna.

“To us, it has all the satellite appearance and intensity of a hurricane,” Beven said. “I don’t know what data they’re looking at. They may have data services locally that don’t go out on the national data service.”

He said no agency is sending out regular hurricane advisories on the storm.

“Down there, this is such a rare and unique event. The whole situation is strange,” Beven said. “We’re trying to help out, but because of the uniqueness of this event, it may be out of their expertise to some degree.”

Normally, here in the states, a storm this size causes little or no damage. But, we’re building to a higher standard, especially in hurricane prone areas, than Brazil. Brazil is a country with absolutely no experience in this regard.

I’m hoping Dr. Escobar is right. I’m afraid Jack Beven knows better.

Watching The Team In Action

Ann, our evening co-anchor, and I were on our way back from dinner when my cell phone started to vibrate. It was the assignment desk calling. There had been a major accident on I-95 in Bridgeport. Details were sketchy. It was a tractor trailer, full of fuel oil, and there was a huge fireball. We didn’t know exactly what was going on – but it was big.

I handed the phone to Ann. As she talked, I sped through the city, toward the TV station five minutes away.

“Ann, I’m going to run this light,” I said at a lonely intersection about halfway there. And I did.

We returned to the newsroom, which had moved from its normal routine to a more frenetic pace. The chopper was flying in from its hangar in Chester. The DOT had removed access to the traffic cameras near the scene (I have no idea why they do this – but they always do). The assignment desk was buzzing, making and taking calls.

Before the cameras went away, Jeff Bailey (left), our webmaster and a former show producer, had scoured the DOT’s web based cameras and plucked a shot of flames in a nearby building. Those cameras too were soon removed. He said he was lucky, but it was instinct that told him to look.

There wasn’t much for me, the weatherman, to do. So, I stepped back and took in the scene.

When there is breaking news, a newsroom is a fascinating place. It’s not just getting the story, but getting the story to those who will tell it. Then there’s coordinating all the disparate elements. Will the art department whip up a map? Can we move a reporter off an earlier story and down to the scene. Does the copter have enough gas to stay aloft? If it has to refuel, what’s the best time to do it… and where?

Is this a fact? Do we know for sure? Can’t guess. Gotta know.

Our news director was there, as was our 6:00 PM producer. The newsroom coordinator who had been in the neighborhood, stopped by, and was pressed into service. It was astounding to watch the flow.

I-95 is the busiest road in the country. The section cutting through Bridgeport, recent scene of years of construction, would be out of service for an indefinite period of time.

The desk checked the hospitals. We had gotten information – as it turns out bad information – that lots people were being taken to area hospitals. You can’t let bad information get on the air.

Reports came in, and checked out, that diesel oil carried by the tractor trailer had washed into a storm drain and was now heading to Long Island Sound through a nearby creek.

We went on the air, cutting into coverage of figure skating. The phones lit up as angry skating fans vented. It doesn’t make any difference what you’re covering or what you’re pre-empting. There are always calls.

The helicopter arrived on scene and Ann let Dennis Protsko, our chopper reporter do his thing. Later, Keith would anchor a cut-in, and then at 10:00, both of them together.

Having been in the chopper many times, I can tell you the best view is the view from our camera – not with the naked eye. Dennis has the advantage of both reporting and controlling the camera. I had watched in a monitor as he approached the scene. The camera, on a mount between the copter’s skids, darted back and forth as he scanned the scene. As he told his story on-the-air, the video followed along.

Other reporters, cameramen and live trucks arrived on the scene and we started to fill in details. We broke in twice during skating, did an extended 10:00 PM news and then our normal 11:00.

It was exciting to watch everything come together. TV news is normally heavily scripted and produced. This was seat of the pants – and it was great.

The directors fought off our control room automation system. They would need to make instant decisions – not preset ones. That’s not what the system does best – but no one would ever know tonight.

I don’t wish this kind of tragedy on anyone. But, when something big happens, I want to see the people I work with step up to the plate – and they did.

I’ll see the ratings tomorrow, but they’re not the indicator of what we did. We couldn’t go door-to-door telling people to turn us on. What we had to do on a night like this was convince those who were watching that we were masterful (and we were). Then, next time it hits the fan, maybe they’ll come back.

I’m really lucky to have been there and watched this. If you work in a team environment, this is what you’d want your team to do.

I can’t be accepted as an unbiased observer here. Of course I have a stake in how we do. But, I mean every word. I wouldn’t write it if it weren’t true.

Note: As great a job as we did, the best photo of the night goes to the Connecticut Post and photographer Christian Abraham. It is their photo, so I can’t post it, just link to it. This will win some prize, for sure.

Could Have Been Worse

There’s still the possibility of a little additional accumulation, but most everything is on the ground. This is certainly less than my early predictions, but not quite as bad a bust as I thought last night.

I’ve given myself a little time to calm down and step back, which helps.

And now, there’s the possibility of another storm early next week. Where’s the Valium when you really need it!

Click here to see a graph of Connecticut snowfall totals from the Department of Transportation.

Pretty Close Is Very Good

I’m not going to lie. There were times this weekend when I thought my forecast was a bust. I heard big numbers from a ferocious storm. Where did I go wrong?

As it turns out, I didn’t. As always, this wasn’t a bullseye, but it wasn’t all that bad. Read what I was expecting from Friday and then, see what we got.

It was colder than I expected, so the precipitation stayed snow longer. The changeover did hold the accumulations down and kept almost everyone under 6″&#185, which is the normal threshold for Winter Storm Warning. Click here to see a chart of snowfall amounts from the Connecticut DOT.

Right now, nearly all of Connecticut is at or above freezing.

City Sky/wx tmp dp rh wind pres remarks

Bradley intl frz rain 32 32 100 N10 29.57F wci 24 tc 0

Hartford Lgt snow 32 N/a N/a N14G21 29.55F wci 22 tc 0

Bridgeport lgt rain 37 35 92 NE14 29.47F wci 28 tc 3

Danbury frz rain 34 32 92 NW6 29.54S fog wci 29

Groton lgt rain 42 41 96 NE18G26 29.47F tc 6

New Haven rain 34 34 100 N14 29.48F fog wci 25

Meriden lgt rain 33 32 96 NE10G18 29.52F fog wci 25

Willimantic lgt rain 36 34 92 NE10 29.54F fog wci 28

Oxford cloudy&#178 34 32 93 NE15G22 29.47F wci 24 tc 1

We are one day closer to March. I couldn’t be happier.

&#185 – This is the second storm in a row where Meriden has had significantly more accumulation than surrounding areas. One more and it becomes untrustworthy to me.

&#178 – The automatic sensors at Waterbury/Oxford Airport haven’t worked properly in years. This reading should report precipitation, but doesn’t.

Stand Your Ground

I have written, probably too much, about winter weather and the problems forecasting it. It is my job to predict the future. I accept a salary to do it. I take responsibility for my forecasts.

If I am wrong, I get called on it – and I accept that. It is absolutely fair to do that, since I claim to be able to predict the future.

Sometimes, my forecasts are ‘fighting the tide’. I’m trying to get my opinions out, yet I’m being drowned out by other, divergent forecasts. I think that’s what’s going to happen tonight.

There’s a Winter Storm Watch for all of Connecticut, except the immediate coast. That means 6″ or more of snow is expected. But, I don’t think it’s as simple as that. And, I don’t think 6″ will fall.

Because of the track, I think we will see snow, but it will be followed by sleet (possibly freezing rain) and then plain old rain on Monday. As soon as snow turns to sleet, freezing rain or rain, the accumulations are held down. And, once temperatures go above freezing on Monday, and rain continues to fall, much of the snow will washed away.

I’m not saying it’s going to be pleasant outside – because it won’t. But, right now my opinion is outside the norm and it will take some effort to make sure it’s heard.

By the way – should I be wrong on Sunday, I will leave this post up. Making bad forecasts painful is a great motivator to be right!