Tag: location

Another Hurricane

Jeanne is making her presence felt along Florida’s East Coast. Rain is pouring – often horizontally! I’m not sure if there are hurricane force winds yet, though what difference does it make. There is enough wind to do damage.

Earlier today when I spoke to my folks they told me the cleanup from Frances isn’t even complete. There is still debris – branches, twigs, fronds – piled on the ground. Tonight, those are undoubtedly missiles.

Hopefully they won’t lose power. That’s the ‘insult to injury’ move in a Florida hurricane.

It’s funny how some people do understand a hurricane’s fury while others do not. My friend Paul was supposed to fly from Los Angeles to Ft. Lauderdale for some business tomorrow. Bzzzzz – canceled. The airport is closed.

On Wednesday he’s supposed to go to Orlando. I told him that might not be a good idea. He couldn’t figure out why… the hurricane surely would be gone.

Yes – but the memory lingers (as do the downed trees and power lines).

It’s Not Easy Being Florida

The forecast for Hurricane Jeanne shows no mercy on the Sunshine Sate. If things go according to plan, by Saturday night Jeanne should be bearing down on the Florida coast with a path similar to Frances.

I can’t imagine Jeanne will move as slowly, but it’s quite possible her winds will be stronger than Frances. Much of the East Coast has already been weakened without repair.

Can a state throw its collective hands up in resignation?

This hasn’t been a particularly good year to live in Florida. I can’t ever remember this many storms hitting one state. And now, the possibility of a Category 3 storm right where Frances hit a few weeks ago.

I spoke to my folks tonight. My mom and dad still have enough batteries and bottled water to start a store. The unknown adventure that faced them with Frances is now gone. They’ve seen this enemy before and aren’t please by the implications.

They are now paying a special assessment from their condo association to cover the cleanup from Frances. The four days and three nights they spent without power is still fresh on their minds. My dad doesn’t want to go another week without Internet service (as he did).

Forget for a second how this will affect people who currently live in Florida. Over the longer term how will this affect who moves to Florida? A lot of people who would have jumped to Florida a month or two ago, won’t!

Will this be a blow to the Florida economy? I can’t see how it won’t. Yes, there will be outside money coming in to rebuild (insurance, federal aid, etc.). At the same time there will be unreimbursed personal financial losses, the immediate loss of tourism dollars and the longer term repercussions of people staying away.

It doesn’t have to be a large percentage to create a large problem.

We know this hurricane season is unusual, but we don’t know if that fact is meaningful in any way. Is this an anecdotal aberration? Is this the beginning of a trend where strong hurricanes forget to turn into the ocean and hit the coast?

Is this an incredible run of bad luck or have we just been uncommonly lucky in the past?

Ivan – I Worry

I am worried the official Hurricane Center track on Ivan is too far to the east. I’m especially worried about New Orleans, the most susceptible city in the United States should a major hurricane strike,

We’ll see what they say at 5:00 PM. Change is good.

Are There Two Floridas?

Hurricane Ivan looks like it will do a pirouette and pass through the narrow Yucatan Channel without directly touching Cuba or Mexico. That means it will maintain much of its strength that much longer (though interaction with environmental winds will take some of the punch out of Ivan over the next few days).

People in the Florida Keys and the East and West Coasts are beginning to relax, having dodged this bullet. TV coverage may begin to slack off too, because areas with the greatest connection to the Northeastern United States are off the hook.

Hold on. This storm is not over. And just because Biloxi and Mobile are not well known up here doesn’t mean they’re not substantial and important.

Ivan continues to have the potential to be the worst killer in the United States of the storms that have touched us this year. Yes, my parents and friends are in the clear. Still, there is no joy in following this storm.

Worried Sound

I spoke with my parents and my friend Wendie today and I heard the same thing from all of them – apprehension. With Hurricane Ivan threatening Jamaica, and the projected path aiming somewhere near Florida, they’re worried.

In the abstract, Hurricane Frances loomed as an adventure. In reality, it was a lot tougher to take – and they didn’t get a direct hit. It is tough under those circumstances not to think about the worst case scenario.

I made the offer again to my folks to come up here to Connecticut for a while. They begged off. No one wants to be driven from their home.

I hope, as is often the case, Ivan changes course and spares Florida. Unfortunately, you can’t will the forecast to happen.

Tonight’s Last Look At Frances

One last look… one final peek at the computer guidance before bedtime. It is troubling.

The gfdl is continuing to call for the track of Hurricane Frances to move just north of West Palm Beach and then over Lake Okeechobee, through the center of the state, and into the Gulf of Mexico via Tampa Bay. This is well south of the official Hurricane Center forecast.

The cross state portion of the trip should take nearly 24 hours. Even that number doesn’t take into account all the hours of tumult, just the hours the eye is over land.

Miami radar is continuing to show the eye over the Bahamas. It still doesn’t look like it’s moving to me. That’s a bad sign. Slow moving storms mean more rain. If the storm is capable of 2-3″ of rain per hour, the enemy becomes time. More hours equal more rain.

On this radar screen&#185 the eye should look like the hole on the end of a drinking straw. Instead it looks like a manhole cover – huge.

That eye would really have to shrink… and quickly… for the storm to intensify. The gfdl thinks it will. There is plenty of warm, open water west of its current position. I won’t even venture a guess. I think this storm is beginning to become very unpredictable.

The gfdl anticipate landfall for the eye late Saturday evening. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it still offshore Sunday at daybreak.

Moving slowly like this hurricane Frances doesn’t have to be a Category 3 or 4 storm to do real damage. It will wear its opponents down over time.

&#185 – The link is ‘live’, meaning clicking gets you the latest view which is not necessarily going to resemble what I’m seeing at 3:43 AM EDT.

Another Evening With Frances

There is one thing that has been established beyond the shadow of a doubt this week. Everyone has a connection to Florida. Whether it’s a friend or relative, someone living there or just visiting, we all have an equity stake in Florida.

Wherever I go people ask me about Hurricane Frances. We’ve all seen what happened on the West Coast of Florida, and this storm promises to be stronger. It’s no surprise that it scares the daylights out of normally unflappable people

Today, for the first time, the computer guidance is beginning to agree. I’ve been pointing to Jupiter/Hobe Sound and the official pronouncements aren’t far off that mark. Of course the hurricane actually has to perform as forecast… to ‘verify’ in the vernacular of meteorologists, which is never guaranteed.

A few things struck me this evening.

On-the-air, we played an ABC report which included an interview with, what I suspect, a government official in the Bahamas. He complained that maybe they had underestimated the storm.

What planet is he on? The predictions for the Bahamas couldn’t have been more dire if we had said a fiery meteor was plunging their way! The Hurricane Center, which cooperates with the government of the Bahamas in hurricane prediction, went out of its way to scare the crap out of Bahamians – and for good reason.

Unfortunately, areas with a lot of tourism often underplay warnings and later downplay damage. It’s not good for business. Not many people are going to want to go to San Salvador Island after today’s report of 120 mph sustained winds. Nassau might get a close scare. Freeport could get a direct hit.

I really miss having radar that sees Frances at this stage. Tonight the satellite imagery started showing some ‘weakness’ on the hurricane’s western flank. I commented to my friend Bob that I thought the storm would be downgraded… and it was at 11:00 PM&#185. Now Frances is Category 3.

It’s funny, but when satellite imagery begins to show a change, it doesn’t strike me as soon as the image actually comes in. It usually takes a while, staring at the satellite loop, before the trend takes hold. This is most frustrating, especially during winter storms, when I go on the air then look at the same data after my weathercast and begin to question impending changes.

The fact that Frances is weaker tonight doesn’t mean too much of anything. Storms naturally get weaker and stronger in response to their immediate environment. There are guesses why it happened, but no one knows. Hurricane experts are baffled by unknown forces all the time. And, for some unknown reason, hurricanes only have a finite amount of time they can spend as major storms. Again, no one knows why nature works this way.

Since all of weather is guided by the laws of physics, we should understand all the forces at work. We do not.

The official forecast is for Hurricane Frances to regain strength in its final march over open water to Florida. The Hurricane Center’s number for Saturday at 8:00 AM EDT is 140 mph, equaling Hurricane Frances strongest point.

It really doesn’t matter. The difference between 125 mph and 140 mph isn’t all that much in the general scheme of things. Even a minimal hurricane will cause significant damage.

More than the wind, I am worried about Frances losing her steering currents and wandering aimlessly, or at a very slow speed, in the warm Atlantic waters between the Bahamas and Florida. An extended period adjacent to land might be worse than a quick, but direct, hit. There will be that much more time for flooding and tornadoes and wind. The forecast will become exponentially more difficult (and less accurate). There will be that much more terror.

&#185 – I have no idea how this happened, but the Hurricane Center issued its 11:00 PM bulletin with the wrong wind speed! Frances was called Category 4, though it had been downgraded to Category 3. You would think something like this would be vetted.

Frances As A Spectator Sport

The names used for hurricanes are on a rotation. Every seven years the names repeat. There is, however, one exception. When a storm becomes ‘notorious,’ it is retired. That’s where Frances is headed.

As of this evening it was about twice the size and significantly stronger than Hurricane Andrew was at this stage of the game. That’s not to say Frances will be another Andrew – but there is that potential.

AT 11 PM EDT…0300Z…A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE

FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH…

INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SOME OR ALL OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA

WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING THURSDAY MORNING. A

HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN

THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A few weeks ago while watching Hurricane Charley, I remarked about the steady stream of data available. There is less from Frances because of its track. As far as I know there are no weather radars available on the Internet from Haiti, Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos or The Bahamas. There are also few, or no, surface observations nearby.

The information is a little more abstract. It needs to be analyzed more carefully and digested. It is not self evident, like looking at Charley on the Key West radar.

There are weather buoys, drifting in Frances’ vicinity. There are also sporadic readings from hurricane hunter planes. And, of course, there is satellite imagery (though the highest resolution images are only available during daylight hours). These are good, but more would be better.

Hour by hour, computer run by computer run, Frances’ destination seems to be locking in on the Florida East Coast. If I had to venture a guess today, I’d say what I said yesterday – somewhere around Jupiter or Hobe Sound.

That’s no guarantee. No place from Homestead to Savannah would surprise me.

If I were anywhere in Florida tonight, I’d be making sure I was prepared. Even with Frances’ strength, most people inland will be forced to weather the storm in their homes. On the coast it will be a totally different story.

Wherever Frances lands, communication will stop. TV and telephone will be limited. Power will be spotty. In some communities, power will be shut off before the storm as a safety precaution.

Most people who live in South Florida have never felt the impact of any direct hurricane hit – much less a category 4 storm. It will be a sobering experience.

My parents live down there, in Palm Beach County. Of course, I worry for them. Their condo has storm shutters and is reasonably well built. The thing it has most going for it is its inland location. I won’t give them specific advice until we get closer.

My friend Wendie lives in the Miami area. Her office and home are close to the Intracoastal Waterway. That is more worrisome.

In a few of the later computer models, Hurricane Frances slows down while approaching the Florida coast. That could mean an extended period of torrential rain and very strong, damaging wind (possibly not hurricane strength if the storm is far enough off shore).

The are really no good scenarios left.

Showing Hurricane Forecasts Differently

Over the past week or two I have followed a few conversations on weather bulletin boards considering the accuracy of hurricane forecasts. Usually, if you hear a hurricane forecast, it is couched with mentions of how hurricane forecasts are very difficult to make.

Let’s use layman’s terms: inaccurate.

This is a given. It is a part of my field I wish was better – though I understand why it’s not.

After Hurricane Charley, there has been a lot of thought given to how people in the Fort Myers area weren’t prepared for the storm even though they were in the Hurricane Warning Area. Maybe… just maybe… it has something to do with how we on TV, and the Hurricane Center, display these forecasts.

The projected path is a line and is bordered by an area of possible error, which expands over time. The thought is, get rid of the line and just show the larger area that displays our margin of error.

It’s a good idea and I’m going to implement it in my system later today.

The problem with the line is, it makes people think we’re more accurate than we really are. Here’s an example of a similar situation. Last winter, the news director for one of my competitors told a magazine reporter that her meteorologists could predict snowfall to the fraction of an inch. What probably happened was, she saw computer outputs that went to 2 places to the right of the decimal point and thought, because it was printed that way, it would be that way!

In order to produce forecasts we often make assumptions and use numbers that imply more accuracy than we have. It’s my job to keep those numbers hidden and just show the usable, trustworthy results. She had seen something not meant as a final product and without any background in meteorology latched onto it.

That’s the problem with the track line. Yes, it’s in the center, but to dwell on it implies more accuracy than we really have.

Blogger’s note: I continue to display ‘live’ links to the latest hurricane info on the right side of this page. It’s a neat feed from the Hurricane Center which I update about 100 times a day.

Amazing View

I have been looking at Hurricane Frances as it continues its journey north of Puerto Rico. The Weather Service radar out of San Juan has some very impressive images.

These are near realtime, so if you’re reading this in the archives, you’ve missed it.

As close as the storm seems, San Juan only has winds of 16 knots or about 19 mph.

Much Ado About Frances

Every few years a hurricane like Frances comes along. I’m not talking about the strength or look, because other storms have looked more menacing and posted more impressive stats. I’m talking about the projected path, which at this early stage, brings the storm to South Florida late this week.

Watching a hurricane is like watching a car accident in slow motion. There’s really nothing you can do but get out of the way. Even if we knew exactly where it would strike, there’s little that could be done to change the outcome. Hopefully, people will heed warnings. Inanimate objects stand little chance.

Hurricanes can be so powerful that their strength is beyond our ability to comprehend.

I’ve spoken with a few people who decided to ‘ride out’ hurricanes at home. To a person, after the fact, they all said they made the wrong decision. In each case the person speaking felt that they would surely die, their home would certainly be ripped apart.

My parents live in Palm Beach County, Florida, so this storm gets even more attention from me. Yesterday I told my mom to go out and buy batteries and bottled water. It is very early. There is no immediate threat. Still, if things get worse, I wanted them to already have what they need and not worry about the stores running out – as they surely will.

Tonight, on the air, one of our anchors asked if this storm could blow itself out or dissipate? I suppose anything’s possible, but that is quite an unlikely scenario. Most likely Frances has a good week to ten days ahead of her as a named storm. She’ll either slam into the East Coast or curve into the Atlantic, meeting her demise over colder water.

At the moment, slamming into the East Coast is the odds on favorite.

Hurricane Questions

After the loss of life, and confusion, following Hurricane Charley, an interesting op-ed piece was written by Bryan Norcross, Chief Meteorologist from WFOR in Miami. You can read it here now, or click the ‘continue’ link at the end of this posting.

Norcross makes some interesting points, many of which I agree with.

Though we make our own forecasts at the TV station, we respect the Weather Service’s watches and warnings (though there are times I mention them, followed by what I think will actually happen).

The bigger problem occurs when watches and warnings are contradictory. Uncoordinated watches, warnings and statements for hurricanes, severe storms… even winter weather, is a continuing weakness of The Weather Service. All hurricane watches, warnings and statements should come from one place – period.

This certainly led to the disservice done to the people for Florida.

When local offices speak, they address problems from their own perspective, which is not necessarily the public’s. And, the public and media are probably concentrating their attention on the Storm Prediction Center (Whose idea was it to change this from the much more meaningful Hurricane Center?), which is where most people would expect to find hurricane info.

I work in Connecticut, a small state served by three NWS offices. Their statements often mislead the public because each only refers to the region for which they forecast.

Here’s an example. If Boston says a watch has been canceled for Connecticut, they mean their counties. No one in Connecticut could read a statement like that and understand that half the state is still under a watch.

During the winter, Litchfield County, our ‘snowbelt,’ might be under a lesser category of alert because the Albany office uses somewhat different criteria than the New York or Boston offices. When I post a map which shows a Winter Weather Advisory for Litchfield while there’s a Winter Storm Warning for our other counties (even though Litchfield has the more wintry forecast) it does nothing but confuse.

I have been to NWS ‘customer’ conferences in Washington, and have tried to sensitize them to this confusion. As you see – no change.

Continue reading “Hurricane Questions”

That L.A. Tornado Mistake

I really haven’t found much new information since I posted an entry about the Los Angeles Tornado Warning a few days ago. The few things I have seen point to a culprit other than the Weather Service.

I’m sure they are breathing a sigh of relief.

People in Los Angeles were left terrified that they were about to be hit by a monster storm.

The California governor

Too Weird For Words

I actually found this on Drudge, but a little research showed it really happened.

WFUS56 KLOX 211553

TORLOX

CAC037-211615-

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

839 AM PDT SAT AUG 21 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OXNARD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…

CENTRAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA

* UNTIL 915 AM PDT

* AT 825 AM PDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTH OF

GLENDALE…OR ABOUT NEAR DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES…MOVING NORTHEAST AT

20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR…

PASADENA BY 850 AM PDT

MOUNT WILSON BY 905 AM PDT

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR…IT MEANS

THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY

ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND…OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU

ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM…MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE

LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING…DO

NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A

WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS

AVAILABLE…SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN

INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO

COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES…EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE…LIE FLAT IN THE

NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT…LON 3413 11837 3400 11822 3425 11788 3441 11808

$$

WOFFORD

First, the most important part of the story – there was no tornado!

I have no idea exactly how this happened. This is the moral equivalent of crying fire in a crowded theater. Expect to hear more on this over the next few days.

Stormy Saturday

Steffie was away at Field Hockey Camp. The weather was forecast to be rotten. There were no movies worth seeing. Helaine and I decided to drive the hour or so to Foxwoods where I could play poker while wearing something other than pajamas.

The traffic was horrendous. Well, for our little part of Connecticut it was horrendous. I’m sure Californians or Long Islanders would disagree with my threshold of traffic pain. We hit the first stoppage on I-91, approaching I-95.

The new Ikea was supposed to attract more cars. Since it has opened, I have noticed much slower traffic where I-91 empties into I-95. It might be a coincidence. I hope it is. I don’t want to think this will now be the norm.

I crossed the “Q” Bridge and headed east on I-95. Since I-95 runs from Maine to Florida it’s considered a north – south road. Signs point you to I-95 north or I-95 south. Unfortunately, here in Connecticut it is entirely east – west. It is somewhat confusing in the beginning.

A few minutes later I heard what sounded like touch tones on the radio, then silence, then National Weather Service radio broadcasting a tornado warning for Northern New Haven County.

I picked up the phone and called the station. I wanted to make sure we were on it. Thankfully we were.

Gil Simmons was heading back to the studio from the Pilot Pen Tennis Tournament. A crew was heading to Wolcott where we had reports of storm damage. Our automated equipment had instantly posted the tornado warning on the air.

We continued the drive – in heavy traffic on I-95. As is so often the case, we never found out why the traffic was heavy. One minute we were in bumper-to-bumper stop and go traffic, the next we were cruising along at the speed limit.

Skies remained threatening, but we beat the storms to the casino. The valet parking area was fairly empty and we pulled right in. As it turned out we beat the thunderstorms by about 30 minutes.

Since July, and Las Vegas, I have spent more time in casinos than ever before. Of course I’ve been going because I’ve been winning. Somehow online poker has made me a much better ‘live’ poker player. And since I am willing to risk more in person, a good night can be very rewarding.

The poker room at Foxwoods is bigger than ever, just having added 12 tables. It was also more crowded than I’d ever seen it with long waiting lists to play. I signed up and Helaine and I left to walk around. I came back in time to play.

Recently, I had been having good luck at $10/$20 Texas Hold’em, and went there again. Foxwoods deals tables of 10 at Hold’em – and the table was full.

I bought in with $200 and was soon down around $60. The things began to turn around. By the time we were ready for dinner I had won $483.&#185

We went to the coffee shop for dinner. Foxwoods has some beautiful restaurants and one disappointing buffet. I had a French Dip sandwich, fries and a bowl of chowder. Dinner couldn’t have been nicer.

To its credit, this coffee shop is reminiscent of Vegas coffee shops. It is bright and airy, more room between tables than you’d expect. The food is very good. The menu is more limited than most Vegas coffee shops, but there’s no problem finding something good to eat.

We headed back upstairs and I got reseated for poker. Even though my dinner break allowed me to be second on the list for players coming in, it took nearly a half hour for me to sit.

I never felt I was doing that well, but before long I could see an extra few stacks of $5 chips in front of me. I was up over $200 before getting sucked into a hand that better judgment should have kept me from. I left the table up another $143.

As was the case when I played in Atlantic City, I keep waiting for my big loss. It is coming – I just don’t know when. Even a great player, and I am not a great player, can’t sustain the string of wins I currently have at brick and mortar casinos.

That loss didn’t come Saturday night.

On the way out I picked up some brochures for Foxwoods big series of tournaments which comes in October. The entries are a bit pricey, but I would consider playing in one event.

In a somewhat sobering observation I realized I am eligible to play in the Senior Tournament. All I need to do is bring proof of my 50+ age… and a lot of cash.

&#185 – When I play poker, I buy in for a round amount. When I cash out I subtract that amount to come up with my win. During the course of playing I tip the dealer after any winning hands and tip the waitress when I get a soda or coffee. Those come from my stack, so they reduce my winnings. Whether they should be part of my winnings or losses is academic. It is easier to calculate it this way, so I do.