Tag: Weather

Observations On Tomorrow’s Snow

Brad loves winter and snow as much as anyone I know. If he’s sick of it… well it’s like Lindsay Lohan complaining about the moral deterioration of America!

Oh my God! I just watched Brad Field say of the winter’s weather, “This is enough.” Brad loves winter and snow as much as anyone I know. If he’s sick of it… well it’s like Lindsay Lohan complaining about the moral deterioration of America!

Meanwhile it’s snow again for tomorrow into Thursday. Not a huge storm, but still a royal pain.

As always the computer models have agreed to disagree! The NAM is all snow while the GFS is a mixed bag on the shore with some sleet mixing in (though a smaller piece of the pie) all the way up to the Massachusetts border.

At work I’d be anguishing over this forecast. This afternoon I am calm.

I’ve included a map of the current (as I write this) Weather Service watches and warnings.

In one of those confusing situations that unbending NWS policy can produce the shading over Hartford and Middlesex Counties aren’t for this storm, but flooding on the Connecticut River. It’s flooding which isn’t really affecting anyone and is currently receding. Connecticut River flood warnings are most often (not always) for situations no one cares about!

More snow will fall than will accumulate! Some will melt on contact. Some will settle into what has fallen earlier. Whatever we get will slow things down, but won’t be a back breaker.

Spring is almost here.

Here’s What I Don’t Miss From Work

Yes, the models are consistently inconsistent and it’s enough to drive me nuts… or it was.

Do I miss forecasting the weather on TV? Absolutely! Do I miss snowfall forecasts? Nope.

Of all the different types of weather I forecast snowfall was the type most consistently misforecast! I’m not just talking about me. No snow forecast by anyone is ever completely right!

Maybe I’m being too hard on myself and my colleagues? There’s a lot of utility in snow forecasts. One reason schools are closed more now is because decisions can be made with confidence. We mostly hit the target. We never get the bullseye.

When snow forecasts are really wrong there’s nowhere to hide!

Here’s what we do reasonably well:

  • precipitation type
  • start time
  • wind
  • temperature

Here’s what we do poorly:

  • precipitation amount

“You said six to ten inches and and I got four!” Trust me, I’ve heard that angry sentence more than once.

Shoot me. It happens.

A snowfall forecast is actually a forecast on top of a forecast on top of a forecast. If any of the intermediate calculations are off everything else is off too. That’s bad news because forecasts can change radically over a short period of time.

The good news is we don’t see cars stranded like they were in 1978 because even if we don’t get totals right there are few storms (and no large storms) that appear as surprises.

To most of us there’s no difference in our lives between one inch and four inches. There is no difference between three inches and eight inches. Sure there’s more to plow, but whatever stops for eight inches has mostly stopped for two.

I used to say all the slippery’s in the first quarter inch. It’s true.

At the top of this entry is a time-series plot courtesy of Dr. Robert Hart from FSU and his coolwx.com website. It’s a breakdown of the prediction from Monday’s 2:00 PM EDT (1800Z) NAM computer run. The NAM says New Haven will start seeing snow Wednesday afternoon with the mainly light snow continuing through the night. The scale on the left side shows water equivalent as opposed to snow totals.

By the time the snow ends Thursday this model says we’ll see about .7″ of water converted to snow. At a typical 10:1 that’s seven inches of snow.

Of course no snow is really typical and warmer ground and light snow at the onset will probably melt the first flakes that fall. Beyond that when snow falls for any length of time it tends to settle, so it takes more than five inches of snow to get five inches of snow! That makes the .7″ academic, not practical.

I mentioned this is from the 1800Z run. As I was typing the next run, the 0000Z came in with around 1/5 the snow!

Yes, the models are consistently inconsistent and it’s enough to drive me nuts… or it was.

Here’s the takeaway. There will probably be some snow on the ground when you wake Thursday. There will be delays if schools think they can wait it out… and they probably can.

The last word on this system hasn’t been written. In some ways I’m happy to be an outside observer.

Oh, You Must Hate That

Maybe this is a secret to my happiness? I love people recognizing me, saying hello and valuing my opinion.

I’ve been looking through my stuff recently trying to find bits and pieces to toss. It’s amazing what you accrue through life. Even when it’s worthless parting is such sweet sorrow!

The attached video was on a CD. It’s a promo the station produced a few years ago.

The part that strikes me as memorable is where I mention people walking up to me thinking I don’t like people walking up to me asking about the weather. Maybe this is a secret to my happiness? I love people recognizing me, saying hello and valuing my opinion.

[jwplayer config=”geofffox.com player” image=”/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/testpattern.png” mediaid=”8994″]

How High Is The Snow?

Get two inches Monday, two on Tuesday and two on Wednesday and I can guarantee you’ll have less than six inches of snow! Snow settles.

Here’s a little secret. Snow is tough to quantify. I’m not just talking about forecasting amounts–a nightmare. This is more about deciding how much is actually on the ground.

Get two inches Monday, two on Tuesday, two on Wednesday and I can guarantee you’ll have less than six inches of snow! Snow settles.

On the other hand plowing the snow will make sure you will surely have piles that are higher. I can attest to that!

On my way home from today’s FedEx run I stopped to gaze and capture a few shots that put the snow into proper perspective.

The black object in the first shot is our mailbox! The snow near Helaine’s SUV is at least midway up the car’s windows.

Unreal.

If You’re Wondering How Much

As if looking out the window isn’t enough the isopleths on this map show Western Connecticut and Buffalo have comparable snowfall totals.

This morning’s Times had an excellent graphic showing the extent of this winter’s exceptional snowfall (Note: I am not using exception quite the same way it’s used in: “Billy is an exceptional student and will surely win a scholarship to Yale.”). As if looking out the window isn’t enough the isopleths&#185 on the map show Western Connecticut and Buffalo with comparable snowfall totals.

Oh the humanity!

Officially Bridgeport has 54.2″ so far while Bradley has 71.1″. Your actual mileage may vary.

&#185 – iso·pleth (ī′sō plet̸h′, -sə-) noun –The line connecting points on a graph or map that have equal or corresponding values with regard to certain variables.

There are many ‘iso’s we learned about in school: isobar, isotherm, isodrosotherm, etc. When there is no specific ‘iso’ to cover a situation (or I don’t know it) isopleth is used.

Snow: Not Yet A Fond Memory (photos)

Here are three shots with which to remember the day… if you really want to.

Some day today’s weather will be a fond memory. Not yet! The snow came as a surprise this morning; an appetizer if you will. The main course comes tonight.

Where are we going to put it all?

The snow on my deck furniture is higher than I’ve seen in twenty years. If there’s a way to get out there to take a photo I would. There is not. For now you have to take my word. I opened a side door briefly to get a shot of the snow piled on the grill. No barbecue tonight!

The good news is my skills as a snow photographer have definitely improved! The bad news is who exactly wants that skill?

Here are three four shots with which to remember the day… if you really want to.

Homeward Bound

Yes, I know what’s going on back in Connecticut.

It’s a sunny morning in the Southland. We’re at a hotel down the block from LAX. Helaine just watched a plane fly between two buildings!

Things are fluid. Our flight was scheduled for 12:55 PST. Now it’s scheduled for 2:05 PM.

Yes, I know what’s going on back in Connecticut. There’s freezing rain&#185 falling across much of the state and it’s falling on top of snow.

I’ve checked the computer guidance and temperatures should be mild enough by arrival time tonight. Unfortunately the computers are often too generous in pushing in warmer air under these circumstances.

Our plane stops in Nashville before going on to Bradley. I’d rather not spend the night there.

&#185 – Freezing rain falls when cloud temperatures are warm enough for rain. Drops fall in liquid form, but freeze on contact as they hit the ground, tree limbs, power lines, etc. It’s probably the most dicey weather for any time of travel–worse than snow.

Tonight’s Snow: Slippery When Beautiful

know, I’m not a snow lover. Gorgeous snow seems so out of character for me.

Let’s change the subject for a while.

It snowed today. Much of the heavier snow came this afternoon and evening. It was a wet snow–a strange way to describe something that’s 100% water! It fell with the wind nearly calm.

There were two significant results from that setup. First the roads were a mess!

The wet snow signified critical temperatures near the melting point. Warm tires against wet snow equals an icy slush between you and the road and zero traction. Some drivers found out they had four wheel drive and no wheel stop!

Second, it was gorgeous!

I know, I’m not a snow lover. Gorgeous snow seems so out of character for me.

Snow that would usually be pushed to the ground with the slightest puff of breeze stayed put. The wet flakes slowly drifted down and accumulated on unlikely spots like branches. Everything is coated.

Tomorrow when the Sun comes out the treebound snow will melt. Beauty is transitory.

Anyone Sick Of Winter Yet?

When snow approaches people want to know as much as we know even when we don’t know all that much!

Over on Twitter the ‘house account’ for the Meriden Record-Journal newspaper just tweeted, “Reports of snow possible towards the end of the week/weekend. Anyone sick of winter yet? #ctweather”

It didn’t take long to see a reply, “I am sick of winter and you can quote me!” That was from me.

Not even two weeks into winter officially and it’s already like being on a bad blind date looking for a strategy to bail. I need a winter wingman!

We’ve only had one real snowstorm so far, but this has been the windiest winter in a long time. December was a decidedly cold month–colder than even December should be. Now there’s the chance for snow as we head into the weekend.

Here’s one thing last winter taught me: Don’t commit too far out!

It’s OK to say what looks likely, but foolhardy to make that anything more than an advisory for planning early on. If you say something will happen with certainty you will certainly be burned! I still have scars.

120 hours out an error of a mile an hour (or less) can be the difference between heavy snow and no snow! I’m not that good. No one is.

I got a note from Dr. Mel this morning. We often chat when these larger systems approach. It’s good on both sides because speaking your mind and defending your ideas is as helpful as listening!

WE HAVE NOT ONE BUT THREE DIFFEENT CIRCULATIONS TO WATCH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK…

BUT IT IS ANYONES GUESS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ON. THE KEY WILL BE THE TROUGH LINE. AS LONG AS IT IS SOUTH OF THE AREA, A CHANNEL FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL EXIST AND WE COULD GET BANDS OF MOD.SNOW IN THOSE SPOKES.

AS USUAL ALL THE MODELS FLIP FLOP…THE 12 Z KEEPS THING POORLY ORGANIZED, AND SHIFT THE TROUGH LINE NORTHWARD…MUCH DIFFERENT FROM OO AND 06Z RUNS.

WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT WATCH…I HEAR THAT A LOT LATELY

People have accused me (and I suppose all forecasters) of hyping these storms. Why? You are just as likely to watch if we claim honest uncertainty as divine insight!

When snow approaches viewers want to know as much as we know even when we don’t know all that much!

Eagles Should Have Played: I’m With Rendell

Note: After writing this I reconsidered my opinion. I am leaving the original up, but you should read the comments which were important in my decision. – Geoff

The Philadelphia Eagles play the Minnesota Vikings tomorrow night. The game was originally scheduled for Sunday night at 8:30 PM. At game time nearby Philadelphia International reported visibility of 3/4 mile in moderate snow and blowing snow. The wind was out of the northwest at 21 mph. It was 25&#176.

Under anyone’s sense of the word it was cold… brutally cold in Philadelphia. It was unpleasant to be outside. For those improperly prepared it was dangerous!

The game shouldn’t have been postponed!

Speaking on KYW-TV in Philly former Philadelphia Mayor and current Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell said,

This is football; football’s played in bad weather. I think the fans would have gotten there, the subways work and the major arteries are still open, and other fans would have stayed home – but you play football regardless of the weather.

He’s right even though the current Mayor had declared a State of Emergency in the city.

If I was broadcasting in Philadelphia I would have encouraged viewers to stay home. People would have anyway! The game would have still been available on TV staffed by a crew ready for bad winter weather.

I’m an Eagles fan. This delay probably benefits the Eagles. It makes no difference.

It’s unfair to the other NFL teams who’ve had to suffer through pass deflecting winds, frozen fields and limited visibility.

The Not Really A Blizzard Blizzard

Basically there was so much wind the snow was blown into drifts which had the effect of compacting the snow.

I am bushed! I know my job isn’t physical labor, but today it was very draining. I started around 1:00 PM and went until 11:35 PM.

A lot of people do a whole lot more. How do you do that?

From a meteorologist’s standpoint today was very interesting. I know now there’s no way I could have predicted snow accumulations accurately. I think most people caught on to that viscerally. Basically there was so much wind the snow was blown into drifts which had the effect of compacting the total.

This is one of those cases where one plus one doesn’t equal two! It was possible to have an inch of snow one hour, an additional inch the next and end up with under an inch of snow!

How many feathers does it take to fill a bag? Similar quandary.

The wind was… still is at this hour… crazy. We seldom get 50 or 60 mph winds, but we did tonight and they were widespread.

I spent the my time on the air telling people to stay off the roads, but by the time I left the building the snow had temporarily let up and I made a dash for the house in Helaine’s 4WD SUV.

I took city streets instead of my usual missile flight up I-91. The main streets were plowed but very slippery. Once I turned onto the squiggly road that climbs my hill things became a little more dicey. The last half mile to my house had no visible tire tracks!

By the way, I stopped the car to take these photos. With all of you at home stopping in-the-middle of the road was no problem. Thanks.

Actually, I take that back. At one stop I had a little difficulty regaining my traction. A quick shift to reverse and a few feet of rollback solved the problem.

We had blizzard warnings tonight and certifiably rotten conditions. What we didn’t have (as I warned in a post a few days ago) was a blizzard! The official parameters are so stringent I’m not sure we ever could!

Maybe blizzard needs to be redefined.

I Won’t Be Much Later Than 4:00 AM

Our first try was to replace the über fast SAS drive with my plain vanilla IDE. It didn’t work.

I’m a tech guy. I build computers. I code websites. Until Saturday night I’d never heard of a SAS drive. Bad time to find out. Last night was when a SAS drive at work decided to throw a fit!

The first call came at 8:11. The server which parcels out all the data our weather computers use had locked. Rebooting it brought the infamous Blue Screen of Death. The system just wouldn’t properly start.

By 8:30 I knew the problem was serious. I hopped in the car and headed toward New Haven.

Earlier today a co-worker asked, “Shouldn’t that have been an engineering phone call?”

Yes and no. An engineer was working on the problem when I got in. He’s a smart guy, but this is an esoteric setup with the aforementioned weird hardware. He was incredibly helpful as we worked the problem together with a tech back in Madison, Wisconsin.

Beyond that he would have soon run into a roadblock. The WebEx remote access software the equipment’s vendor uses on our equipment spontaneously freezes on our network! No one knows why. It just does.

I drove into New Haven carrying a spare hard drive. Our first try was to replace the über fast SAS drive with my plain vanilla IDE. It didn’t work. No one thought it would, but we were grasping at straws.

The system came up so sluggishly it was as if we were writing on the screen with a crayon! Back to the drawing board, but we’d wasted over an hour.

We took a chance and plugged the dead drive back in. Then we attempted to restore a ‘ghosted’ version of the system. It sounds simple, but it was another 40 minutes before the computer came back. Even then what we had was unusable!

This server is divided into two drives. One contains the system files, things like Windows. The other drive has the data, organized into a complex structure of directories and subdirectories. The system half was back but the data structure, data and any customizations we’d created over the last five or six years was gone!

At least we now had enough computer running to allow Billy in Madison remote access. I configured the network access (this system is decidedly not plug-and-play) and got online. As predicted the WebEx access crashed pretty quickly. I fired up TeamViewer (my current go to remote access software). We were golden.

He was in Wisconsin. I was in Connecticut. We were working in parallel fixing separate but equal problems simultaneously. The phone was on speaker, but we were mainly silent until our paths crossed or one (usually me) of us needed additional guidance. After we finished I noticed this single call ran nearly four hours!

Helaine called my cell around 3:00 AM. She was having trouble sleeping. I told her I wouldn’t be home much later than 4:00 AM… and I wasn’t.

The system isn’t 100% restored yet, but it’s mostly there. I assume the last pieces can be put in the puzzle today. God, I hope so.

This will sound very strange, but the whole process was satisfying even though it took almost a full work day out of the middle of my weekend. We solved a huge problem that didn’t seem solvable. It was a pain and tedious, but it needed to be done and it was.

You know that scene in Apollo 13 where Gene Kranz talks to the crew in Mission Control?

We’ve never lost an American in space, we’re sure as hell not gonna lose one on my watch! Failure is not an option.

I’d like to think I’ve got that same work ethic.

Sunday’s Driving Me Nuts

The NAM misses us entirely. The GFS brings a plowable, not back breaking, accumulation. The European model hints at Armageddon!

This Sunday storm possibility is driving me a little crazy… and by a little crazy I mean very crazy! Each succeeding run of the computer guidance just muddies the water more.

There was a time earlier this week when one model hinted at 2&#189 feet of snow! Six hours later 90% of that wasn’t coming.

Even now just a few days ahead when the models should be coming into alignment they are not. The NAM misses us entirely. The GFS brings a plowable, not back breaking, accumulation. The European model hints at Armageddon!

Who could possibly know?

Here’s the funny thing. Even a non-specific forecast is helpful. There’s something to be said about at least planning for a ‘rainy day.’

Oh, hell… rainy. I hadn’t even considered that until now.

So We’ve Got This Chance For Snow…

Am I convinced of snow? Of course not. Is it the most likely outcome right now? Yes.

There’s snow in the forecast for the weekend, specifically Sunday into Monday. Obviously it’s something I need to talk about, but it’s only Tuesday!

Back in the ‘dark ages’ when we had a five day forecast this wouldn’t have been a problem yet.

Am I convinced of snow? Of course not. Is it the most likely outcome right now? Yes.

The best I can do at the moment is give the forecast and admit it’s carved in chocolate pudding. It doesn’t matter. Someone will still say I guaranteed snow.

I can guarantee that!

If Your Cold Weather Is Temporary Don’t Kvetch!

It was chilly for Los Angeles. But I’m with Stef on this, cut me a break.

I spoke to Stef last night as I left work. She told me on her way home from the studio (That sounds so Hollywood, doesn’t it?) she noticed someone in a full length fleece coat. Stef was wearing a light sweater. The temperature was in the 50s. She couldn’t believe it.

Believe it Stef!

People don’t complain about abstract numbers they complain about deviation from normal. It was chilly for Los Angeles. But I’m with Stef on this, cut me a break.

Same thing happened today on my way into work. I was speaking with my mother. I told her we were in the low 20&#176s overnight. She then told me she had her heat on for the first time this season.

I love you Mom, but really? She’s in Florida for heaven’s sake! Her temperature bottomed out in the upper 30&#176s about 15&#176 warmer than here.

Can we trade?

Right now it’s 74&#176 on the USC campus in L.A. My folks are in the mid 50&#176s. By next week this cold air will be a thing of the past… for them. For us it’s the gift that keeps on giving.

Don’t kvetch.