Tag: Weather

The Bane Of My Existence: Snow

We probably don’t have much more than a quarter inch right now. What’s the bet that delays some schools?

It’s snowing right now. I’ve seen it with my own two eyes. The snow’s light, sort of like dandruff from Mother Nature. It’s still snow!

I’ve been spending less time downstairs and more upstairs recently. No food up here. Still I get hungry. It was on a foraging trip to the kitchen when I noticed something that didn’t look quite right.

A quick flip of the porch light showed there was snow and it was sticking. We probably don’t have much more than a quarter inch right now. What’s the bet that delays some schools?

I take solace knowing light snow was in the forecast when I left work Friday. I won’t be right for every storm. That’s my wintry fear.

The Buffalo Snowmap

Here’s a map from the Weather Service recounting this storm. The 1-3 foot area is only 12 miles wide! It’s not much more than 6-7 miles from three feet of snow to zero.

Earlier today I posted my Lake Effect snow story. If you read it one of the points I tried to bring home was how narrow these bands really are. Now documentary proof!

Here’s a map from the Weather Service recounting this storm. The 1-3 foot area is only 12 miles wide! It’s not much more than 6-7 miles from three feet of snow to zero.

Click the map to see a larger view.

My Lake Effect Snow Story

The best way to explain Buffalo’s lake effect snow is with a little story. It was the day Helaine and I got our marriage license. Because we were getting married in Pennsylvania we had to drive to Erie, PA.

This evening at 4:45 the Weather Service office in Buffalo relayed a report from West Seneca, NY. A volunteer observer measured 32″ of snow from Thursday’s persistent lake effect snowband.

I wasn’t surprised.

Winter weather in the Buffalo area is brutal. The city itself gets ‘only’ around 80″ of snow per year. The snow belt south of town can get as much as 150″. East of Lake Ontario, closer to Syracuse, it’s even worse.

The area east of Lake Ontario is the “snow capital” of the east. The higher elevations between Watertown and Syracuse, commonly known as the Tug Hill Plateau, receives of more than 200 inches a year. In fact, the town of Hooker, located in Lewis county, recorded 466 inches of snow during the winter of 1976-77! – source: National Weather Service Buffalo Forecast Office

I lived in Buffalo from 1980 through 1984. I will never forget those winters. It seemed to snow nearly every day even if only flurries.

The best way to explain Buffalo’s Lake Effect snow is with a little story. It was the day Helaine and I got our marriage license. We were living in Buffalo. We were getting married in Pennsylvania. The closest place to get a license was Erie, PA, about 100 miles away.

As we left our apartment skies were cloudy. By South Buffalo there were flurries. We paid our toll and got on the New York State Thruway. We passed West Seneca in heavy snow.

I was used to Western New York driving conditions so we continued southwest on the Thruway paralleling Lake Erie’s shoreline. By Dunkirk the snow was back down to flurries. Soon we were in bright sunshine. I remember the skies over Erie being blue and cloud free!

We paid our money, showed our blood tests (another story for another day–blood tests almost kept us from getting married) and got our license.

As we headed back to Buffalo every bit of weather was in the exact same place we left it!

From Erie’s sunshine we hit flurries in Dunkirk. Over the course of a few miles the snow ramped up in intensity. It was snowing heavily as we passed through West Seneca then back to flurries by South Buffalo. I parked under cloudy skies back at our Gates Circle apartment where there was no sign any new snow had fallen.

That’s the power of Lake Effect snow: Persistence!

Lake Effect snow bands are often just a few miles wide, but within those few miles snowfall rates of 4 or 5 inches per hour are possible. The strength of cold air aloft and alignment of wind decides where the snow goes and its intensity. The wind needs a long ‘fetch’ over Lake Erie to be effective as a snow maker. That limits where Lake Effect snow can fall.

As long as the cold wind blows the snow can fall for hours or even days! A few miles often decides whether you get feet of snow or just a dusting.

There are only a handful of places in the world where this setup of cold air and properly aligned body of water exist. Buffalo and Syracuse just got lucky I guess.

Hey California: Don’t Kvetch About The Weather, OK? (video)

I don’t want to hear it. Was that clear enough? I just don’t want to hear it was crowded at the pool or the sunshine was blinding. Stifle it.

The mercury hit 100 degrees in San Diego today! Los Angeles came in at 96 degrees. People in Southern California were kvetching about the heat!

I don’t want to hear it. Was that clear enough? I just don’t want to hear it was crowded at the pool or the sunshine was blinding. Stifle it.

Thursday in Connecticut was awful. Chilly. Rainy. Breezy. Ugh!

I left work in a hard drizzle (yes, you can have a hard drizzle) that penetrated the atmosphere so effectively umbrellas were no help!

This would probably be a good night to start drinking! I’m frosted at Mother Nature and totally envious of my daughter who’s living in the San Fernando Valley complaining about the heat.

Cut me a break!

To you Stefanie I dedicate this video.

The Weather And Keith Porter’s Legs

As I drove into the station’s parking lot I found my opportunity. Our chief photographer Keith Porter was working on some equipment in the garage. He is dressed for today’s weather!

Yesterday was our day for rain. It was associated with the huge storm that spawned both tornadoes and hurricane strength wind gusts to our south and west. Today the skies cleared.

The temperature will plunge tomorrow. Today it held on to the 70&#176s. One last hurrah!

This would be a beautiful day any time of the year, but for late October it’s a major treat.

I was looking to take a photo to note the weather on the blog. As I drove into the station’s parking lot I found my opportunity. Our chief photographer Keith Porter was working on some equipment in the garage. He is dressed for today’s weather!

Shorts weather is gone by tomorrow. Sorry Keith.

My Advice On What Not To Say On TV… After Saying It

Hey–this is a week and a half out! I’m not that good. No one is.

If you’re planning on mounting a career as an on-air TV meteorologist I have some advice. When you see an interesting tidbit in the very distant future keep it to yourself!

It’s common to buzz through the longer range computer models as they calculate what might happen in the future.

As a ‘met’ I know how these things work. Small errors early on expand exponentially over time. Depending on the complexity of the pattern there might only be a few days of useful information.

This afternoon I was looking at the 12Z GFS model when a huge low caught my eye. Temperatures at 850mb (about 5,000 feet) were cold meaning the precipitation from this system would probably be snow in the Midwest.

As I continued to run through the hours the storm moved east. Snow for us too.

Hey–this is a week and a half out! I’m not that good. No one is.

It was the first time this season I’d seen a chance for snow in Connecticut, so I mentioned it. I did everything I could to play it down, but almost immediately my Facebook page began to fill with comments. The same thing happened on Twitter.

It was as if I’d said the ship was sinking. Every man for himself! Buy all the milk and bread you can get your hands on!

If I saw this forecast setup again I’d probably mention it again. I just wish there was a way to keep it in perspective.

Paula: If You Didn’t Know There Was A Hurricane There…

From time-to-time people talk about the frequency of hurricanes claiming there are more hurricanes now than ever before. Please take that claim with a grain of salt.

From time-to-time people talk about the frequency of hurricanes claiming there are more hurricanes now than ever before. Please take that claim with a grain of salt.

I will let the Hurricane Center do my explaining for me. This is the lead paragraph in the current technical discussion on Hurricane Paula.

A HURRICANE IS CROSSING BETWEEN THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND EASTERN YUCATAN…BUT WITHOUT MODERN TECHNOLOGY NO ONE WOULD KNOW IT WAS THERE.

This is not to say there aren’t going to be problems. I expect rain, flooding and even mudslides in Cuba. Still, if you didn’t know there was a hurricane there you wouldn’t know there’s a hurricane there.

Before the advent of satellites we might still be waiting for the “P” storm to form!

When Rotten Weather Makes Me Happy

It’s just a shame we need a state full of minor to moderate flooding with tree limbs and power lines down to make people happy with my work!

A few days ago one of my co-workers commented on the now fallen then expected precipitation and said, “We really need the rain.” I asked her to be careful what she wished for!

For me today’s storm (the second half of a system that spanned two days with a sizable lull in the middle) was very much like a snowstorm. I came to that conclusion around 3:00 AM when I checked the radar to find the rain already a few hours west of where I said it would be. Obsessive radar gazing is a winter tic for me.

Like a winter storm a good part of the overnight was also spent rechecking computer guidance. There are more models run more often nowadays. It’s a second guesser’s paradise!

I’m not sure why I do it. There’s little upside. Mostly it’s just a way to increase my anguish while alone of the sofa in our darkened family room.

What am I supposed to do? If I find things have changed do I give everyone a call? It’s a pointless exercise I can’t shake.

When I went to sleep around 5:10 AM my driveway was still dry. My next conscious thought came a few hours later. The wind woke me! No rain was falling yet, but we were in the middle of a howling gale.

I apologize. Even though I knew it would adversely affect lots of people there was satisfaction the forecast was beginning to verify. Then came the rain–buckets of rain. A little late, but as forecast&#185

As a forecaster I see weather before it happens. The actual numbers aren’t as important as being able to paint a picture from my pre-visualization. Viewers should be left with an actionable understanding.

The forecast is never 100% accurate–never. There is always some parameter (mostly small, sometimes not) that doesn’t play out.

It’s just a shame we need a state full of minor to moderate flooding with tree limbs and power lines down to make people happy with my work!

&#185 – “As forecast” are the two most important words I can hear.

Why No Watch?

A watch is supposed to be the ‘heads up’ before bad weather strikes.

See note at the bottom of this entry for additional information received since I first posted.

I am surprised there was no severe weather watch for New York City, Connecticut or the surrounding environs this afternoon. Without a watch Staten Island, Brooklyn and Queens went directly to a Tornado Warning just as parts of Connecticut have just gone to a Severe Thunderstorm Warning (since cancelled).

A watch is supposed to be the ‘heads up’ before bad weather strikes.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued when conditions are favorable for development of severe thunderstorms. While not anticipated, tornadoes may occur in the watch area. The Storms Prediction Center (SPC) is the sole agency responsible for issuing a watch. A watch covers several thousands of square miles and generally lasts from two to six hours.

I’m not sure yet if there’s been anything more than heavy rain so far in Connecticut but photos and video from New York City show lots of damage. The photo at the top of this entry is unverified so take it with a grain of salt, but it’s a powerful image. (I now have additional info on the photo. See below.)

Everyone expected strong storms. You didn’t have to be a forecasting genius to see that. That makes the absence of a watch even more troubling.

Sometimes I’m just as puzzled by this stuff as you.

Note: After posting this Huffington Post found the image is true but not from Thursday. There was a great deal of damage in Queens and Brooklyn Thursday, but so far no official confirmation of a tornado. I suspect evidence will prove there was one.

Inside Baseball: Hurricane Igor

Cat 4 we say, because saying cat instead of category makes us sound cooler.

A little tropical weather inside baseball tonight.

I’ve been spending lots of time with Hurricane Igor. You would expect that. It might threaten Bermuda over the weekend, but right now it’s all alone out in the wide open ocean. Top sustained winds are estimated at 155 mph with higher gusts. Cat 4 we say, because saying cat instead of category makes us sound cooler.

Tonight in its 03Z technical discussion Robbie Berg the National Hurricane Center’s on-duty specialist said,

SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THIS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER WHEN IT IS LIKELY THAT INTERNAL DYNAMICS…WHICH ARE NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD…WILL INFLUENCE THE INTENSITY.

Huh? Really?

In essence NHC is saying Igor will weaken… just because.

I agree!

When a hurricane reaches 155 mph there’s only so much faster it can spin. It’s possible for hurricane speeds to reach 200 mph, but that’s very rare. In reality there are many, many more factors that can diminish the storm than can intensify it. Betting on a 155 mph storm weakening almost always wins.

Almost, not always!

The Hurricane Center knows there’s only so long any storm can maintain this nearly perfect form. At some point something… anything will intrude. It doesn’t have to be a major factor to upset the balance and lessen the storm’s efficiency in maintaining strength. It always happens. At some point the water temperature will be a little cooler or there will be a frictional force from some other nearby weather feature.

Of all the things the Hurricane Center predicts wind speed is most problematic and subject to the largest errors.

NHC is betting on climatology or what’s happened before to predict what’s going to happen now. That’s reasonable. Out in the open ocean the downside to guessing wrong is less.

Hurricane Earl And The Narrower Cone

The cone starts narrow and widens over time. The idea is the farther out a forecast goes the more fudge factor is necessary. With Hurricane Earl as close as it is we are now on the outside of the narrow end of the cone.

Here’s a photo I posted on Facebook a few days ago. It’s me during the manic days that lead up to a storm. I left work tonight exhausted even though we all know I don’t really do any physical labor (does map pointing count?).

The Hurricane Center’s forecast features the “Cone of Uncertainty.” The name describes it fittingly, but it’s still a dumb name because everyone immediately thinks of Get Smart.

Cred buster!

The cone starts narrow and widens over time. The idea is the farther out a forecast goes the more fudge factor is necessary. With Hurricane Earl as close as it is we are now on the outside of the narrow end of the cone. There is nearly no chance of Earl hitting Connecticut directly.

My friend Ryan who forecasts for Channel 30 tweeted:

Tomorrow evening will look like any other “rainy night”. I don’t expect any damage or anything more than isolated power problems.

He very well could be right though he is a shade more optimistic than I am. A nasty rainy night sounds more reasonable to me, but we are separated by shades. I do expect there will be some gusty winds especially in Southeastern Connecticut. Isolated power problems? Absolutely.

In any event Ryan and I and every other meteorologist around has done their best to allay fears. There may be people at the TV stations who’d like the storm’s impact perceived larger than it is. None of them work in weather.

I got an email this evening from Bob, a writer friend in Guilford.

Your blog pics of that storm, and your awestruck description of it, seriously scare the hell out of me.

Is that the impression I left? Though most casual viewers only remember the big storms I look at them all–even those six hour wonders that get named then deteriorate in under a day! Hurricane Earl was (it isn’t anymore) an exceptional work of nature. It had everything you should fear from a hurricane except a threatening path.

Now the waiting begins. The forecast will hardly change unless Earl totally flies by without saying hello.

There is little as satisfying as nailing the forecast. You probably don’t remember the storms I downplay as much as the ones forecast to strike. You would if I was wrong!

Earl Envelopes Me — Featuring Ann Nyberg And Her Webcam

It can come true but it’s unlikely and deserves to be treated that way. It’s easy to make outlandish forecasts when you’ve got no skin in the game.

My website traffic’s up. I would guess you’re here wondering what I think of Earl? I’m in awe of this storm.

When the satellite map appeared on my screen tonight I marveled at the natural beauty of Hurricane Earl. Not all hurricanes are alike. Earl is classic.

Tonight Earl is exquisitely curved. The eye, 30 nautical miles in diameter, is nearly round. Earl is undisturbed, gorging on energy transferred from the warm waters below.

Few storms look like this. Most have faults or flaws. There’s a reason not every storm is as strong as Earl. A lot of things have to fall into place. It seldom happens.

At some point Earl will interact with land or colder water or the strong westerlies still to come. He will weaken.

I don’t know everything, but I’ve watched a lot of these storms. I am very intellectually curious in matters of science and technology.

Often during storms I chat with my friend Bob down in Tallahassee. He is one of a handful of the brightest minds in this field. Our conversations often center around interesting and esoteric observations. It’s stuff almost no one looks at. We talk about buoy readings a lot. Sometime we rate the hurricane forecasters at NHC as if they were eligible to be drafted onto some “fantasy meteorology” team.

“2 min,” he’ll type and two minutes later a link arrives. At the other end a beautifully rendered map or chart created on-the-spot to illustrate a point. Few people think this way. Fewer have this skill. It’s sort of amazing.

It’s funny how some viewers interpret what I’m doing. This was blogged this evening:

Our local meteorologist Geoff Fox says Earl should not be that much of a threat to the Connecticut coast, but you can hear the excitement in his voice. You just know he’s waiting for the big one.

Really? I just want to grit my teeth and let out a small scream. Everything I’ve done has been to try and balance what we’ll see with what at the moment is a freak of nature! I don’t want to see the big one or even the medium one. I have too much respect… too much fear.

I often get emails and phone calls trying to sell me on a more exciting forecast. Their logic always has multiple ifs. It can come true but it’s unlikely and deserves to be treated that way. It’s easy to make outlandish forecasts when you’ve got no skin in the game.

Ann Nyberg came to the Weather Center tonight. She interviewed me for her website.

Hurricane Earl: The Sweating Begins

The sweating begins.

You’ll be glad to know most of the dependable guidance continues to show Hurricane Earl south of Long Island then out-to-sea. Some of the models are more westerly than others, but for most we get a rotten day with some limbs/power down and enough rain to gum things up.

This time before a storm I get emails and other messages asking if the author can do something on a given day. I don’t answer those. I don’t want someone to get into an accident and then, whether my fault or not, say “I was unsure, so I asked Geoff if I could go.”

The answer is always “No!” You cannot.

He’s not requesting advice. He’s asking permission!Not granted.

Sorry.

I have worked hard to allay fears, to reassure the viewers. Now that scenario better come true. Being wrong here would be pretty awful for all concerned!

I’ll be sweating all the models and anything else I can get my hands on. Now that Earl is closer there will be shorter term models available. More confusion!

So far the track has stayed reasonably in line. This would seem a logical path based on past storms.

Most likely Friday on TV you’ll have a good view as Earl slides by. He should be within radar range. We’ll have hi-res imagery to show. If you enjoy this sort of thing you”ll have fun, but from afar.

I have been forecasting in Connecticut over 26 years. The pressure to find the correct forecast answer has never seemed greater.

Not A Good Night On Saint Maarten

Wind rushes inward toward the hurricane’s centerr. Yes–hurricane’s suck!

I captured the radar image above a little before midnight. You’re looking at Hurricane Earl on the heretofore unknown St Maarten radar. St Maarten is in the middle. On the left is Puerto Rico. The Virgin Islands sit between the two.

Hurricanes are the Gisele Bundchen of meteorology! They are stared at and studied. They are incessantly photographed. They are penetrated by flying meteo labs. All the stops are pulled for hurricanes.

Hurricanes obey the laws of physics. All weather does. Still, hurricanes are distinct.

At its simplest a hurricane moves heat from the equator where there’s an overabundance to the poles where there’s a paucity. The Earth appreciates it. This would be a very different world without hurricanes to transfer heat.

Wind rushes inward toward the hurricane’s centerr. Yes–hurricane’s suck!

As the wind moves friction turns it right. That rightward turn translates into the storm’s counterclockwise spin. As the wind gets closer to the center it gets faster until it finally reaches the eye where it is carried aloft!

The base of a hurricane sucks. The top of a hurricane blows.

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF EARL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD CREATE A ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS EARL BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ABOVE THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE.

Pretty standard stuff from Dr. Richard Pasch at the Hurricane Center. The storm is his responsibility tonight.

I keep looking at the long range guidance because this storm has been modeled to pass very close to Connecticut. The 00z (8:00 PM EDT) run of the GFS isn’t in yet, but yesterday’s 18z shows Earl brushing past Cape Hatteras then hooking northeasterly south of Long Island and possibly striking Cape Cod.

Right now on St Maarten the wind is out of the northnortheast at 14 mph. There’s a thunderstorm in progress–not unusual on a tropical island. Tomorrow will be different.

When Hurricane Earl hits (or goes a little south of the island) every single person on St. Maarten will feel threatened! No one goes through a hurricane in any kind of shelter without fear. It’s well founded.

Earl Makes A Scary Move

It’s early in the process, but Earl has tracked west of guidance. That means it’s closer to the U.S. mainland.

I just looked at the latest on Earl. This now scares me a little. It’s early in the process, but Earl has tracked west of guidance. That means it’s closer to the U.S. mainland.

This disparity is initialized into the 00z GFS. It moves Earl just southeast of us Friday evening. Earl misses us, but not by much. Too close for comfort.

To some the idea of a hurricane striking seems like an adventure. My parents felt that way the first time they were hit. It becomes a pain-in-the-ass pretty quickly.

For some people the impact is a lot worse.

The fact I’m writing about it here and not on TV means it’s still not enough of a threat to worry people. Trust me, I’ll keep an eye on it.

For the nerdier among us here’s the latest forecast discussion from Jack Beven at the Hurricane Center.


000
WTNT42 KNHC 290314
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FLYING A RESEARCH MISSION INTO EARL REPORTED
FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS SUPPORTING A INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
KT. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 55 KT...AND A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 56 KT.
THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 989 MB.
WHILE EARL IS STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. EARL IS APPROACHING THE END OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE SEPARATING IT FROM HURRICANE DANIELLE...WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF EARL DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR...
WHILE THE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENS. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STEER EARL GENERALLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TRYING TO TURN IT NORTHWARD AS IT
APPROACHES. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE EARL TO
MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE TROUGH EXERTS A
GREATER INFLUENCE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 12 HR BASED ON THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. AFTER THAT...IT LIES A LITTLE TO LEFT
OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS
AND THE GFDL. THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SOUTH
OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

THE CURRENT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT 24 HR AND ALLOW EARL TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EARL SHOULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 72
HR...IF NOT SOONER...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AFTER 72 HR...AS THERE
ARE DISAGREEMENTS IN THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ON HOW MUCH SHEAR EARL
WILL ENCOUNTER AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS
AND ECMWF FORECAST LIGHT ENOUGH SHEAR TO ALLOW EARL TO MAINTAIN ITS
STRENGTH...WHILE THE UKMET FORECASTS STRONG ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS TO CAUSE EARL TO SHEAR APART. AT THIS TIME...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES WITH SLOW WEAKENING
AFTER 96 HR.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY REVISED
BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES HURRICANE WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL
WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 16.6N 55.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 17.0N 57.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 17.5N 60.0W 70 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 18.1N 62.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 19.0N 63.9W 90 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 22.0N 68.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 25.0N 71.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 31.0N 72.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN