Weather – Page 4 – Geoff Fox: My Permanent Record

Dear Weather Channel

Dear Weather Channel,

I heard the news. DirecTV is playing hardball. They’ve pulled the plug and covered your old channel with WeatherNation. Harsh.

Here’s the problem. No one will show you sympathy while you make claims that are over-the-top.

The consequences of removing it from 20 million households are detrimental to public safety. That’s why Congress and DIRECTV need to understand the risks to your local community. – KeepTheWeatherChannel.com

You business is weathertainment. That’s fine. There’s nothing wrong with it. It’s an honorable pursuit.

People don’t watch as much when the weather’s tranquil. Your move to long form reality makes more sense when taken within that context.

You’re spending more on production. You’ve brought in more experts–some excellent. Your travel budget is large. You have carved out your niche.

When weather is the story, you’re America’s number two choice!

Sorry. Local media always covers storms with more specificity and detail. They always do a better job. Always.

Someone recently gave me the TV ratings from the Oklahoma City tornado outbreak. While warnings were in effect, local news received over 90% of the viewers. TWC was down in the weeds somewhere.

The Weather Channel was a great way to follow the storms from Cleveland, Des Moines or Los Angeles. Oklahoma City needed local info in ways you just can’t do.

Even you wouldn’t have the cajones to tell people to turn away from local coverage and follow threatening weather with you.

You do what you do well. It’s time you come to grips with what that is.

All the best,
Geoff

In A Pissing Match Everyone Gets Wet

The Weather Channel and DirecTV have gone past the end of their carriage agreement with no new contract in sight. Let the PR games begin!

It’s only been the last few years that cable companies, satellite providers, stations and networks began airing their disputes in public, asking for your help to make sure channels don’t disappear. That makes me uncomfortable.

From my vantage, this dispute seems the most public and potentially ugliest so far. The Weather Channel is both DirecTV’s supplier and competitor–mostly owned by NBC/Universal, which itself is owned by Comcast! Comcast has to be careful they’re not teaching their suppliers how to beat them at their own game!

The Weather Channel of 2014 isn’t the same service that John Coleman began in 1982. Back then it was 100% weather presented without much sizzle. Today’s TWC is much more slickly packaged with lots of non-weather programming. DirecTV says, “more than 40 percent of The Weather Channel’s programming is dedicated to reality television shows.”

Beyond that, its iconic “Local on-the-8s” forecast is no longer uniformly delivered. In Connecticut, Comcast didn’t provide the local forecast on TWC’s HD channel. The forecast on TWC’s standard def channel was for the shoreline and often inapplicable where I lived a few hundred feet up on Mount Carmel. Here in Irvine, AT&T Uverse doesn’t provide it at all.

It’s also a problem for DirecTV subscribers.

Since we are a national service provider, we’re unable to offer local updates through The Weather Channel the way that local-based companies can.

The Weather Channel is facing a financial reality some all news channels are also facing. People watch when the weather’s compelling and don’t when it isn’t. That’s part of the reason for the move into (easily preempted) unscripted non-fiction.

The wild card in all this is DirecTV’s ace in-the-hole, WeatherNation. A few weeks ago DirecTV began carrying WeatherNation right next to The Weather Channel. Begun by Paul Douglas, a Minneapolis area meteorologist for years and innovator in computer graphics, WN reminds me of the ‘old’ Weather Channel. It’s all weather with clean graphics, nothing fancy. It looks like a lean operation with the on-camera meteorologists acting as their own director, switching the show live on-air.

The Weather Channel is pushing back on-air and on-line. Jim Cantore, their most recognizable meteorologist/personality, has become the company spokesman.

But now DIRECTV is threatening to remove this critical life-saving community resource from 20 million households.

The problem is TWC probably isn’t where you should go when weather is critical. You’re nearly always better served going to a source which specifically concentrates on your specific area.

In the end this dispute isn’t about competition or technology or even “life-saving.” This is about money and power. When an agreement is reached (it will be) both DirecTV and The Weather Channel will shut up and play on.

Today it’s a pissing match and unfortunately, in a pissing match everyone gets wet!

The Snow I Won’t Miss

New Year’s Night. 8:47 PM PST.

There’s a storm on the way to New England. There are one or two major storms there during any snow season. This will be one.

I’ve been working the numbers. It’s fun to forecast. I like maps, graphs and numbers. I can do it sitting in my chair here in Orange County.

I don’t miss the anxiety of forecasting. I know my fellow meteorologists sweat these out too. No one wants to be wrong.

At this hour radar from the Northeast is showing snow over Connecticut. Bradley’s been reporting light snow for over an hour. Most of the state is still quiet. The center of the upcoming storm is over Arkansas!

Here’s the setup: The low moves from Arkansas to the Northeast. A Canadian high will block the low’s northerly progress, but also provide an ample supply of cold air.

New England’s geography takes over.

As the low moves over the relatively mild (compared to land) ocean it will explode! A low’s strength is measure by its central pressure. The pressure will drop like a rock!

The prediction shows a rapid fall from ~1016mb to ~985mb. That will enhance both precipitation and wind! More of each.

Don’t be fooled. This isn’t a linear storm. There will be a long period of light snow, then the main course.

Thursday will be cloudy with snow showers and flurries. A few inches will accumulate during the day. If you have to drive you probably will, though you shouldn’t. The wind will being picking up.

After dark, windblown snow becoming heavy at times. Strong northeasterly winds. You’ll want to be safely home before this bad boy gets going.

Some areas might see a foot. 5-8″ will probably be the average.

The snow ends Friday morning. It will be replaced by bitterly cold air with many spots dipping below zero Saturday morning.

You don’t want to know what it will be like here in SoCal tomorrow.

How To Get Connecticut Snowfall Totals

This time of year there’s a steady barrage of incoming messages looking for Connecticut snowfall totals. Some folks are curious. Others want to make sure their plow contractor isn’t overcharging, or they’re plow contractors who’d like to charge more!

The info isn’t easily obtained, especially for smaller towns. If you’re looking for Connecticut snowfall totals, here’s where I go.

The most complete source is the Connecticut Department of Transportation Weather Roundup. These are collected every two hours at DOT yards across Connecticut. Because of the methodology used the cumulative snowfall total is always more than what’s actually settled on the ground.

The National Weather Service splits Connecticut between three Weather Service Forecast Offices. That makes things more difficult. You’ll have to look at all three Public Information Statements to put the info together.

Shoreline counties: National Weather Service Forecast Office, Upton, NY.

Hartford, Tolland and Windham Counties: National Weather Service Forecast Office, Taunton, MA.

Litchfield County: National Weather Service Forecast Office, Albany, NY.

Snowfall and other weather data is often critical in accidents and contract disputes. For those more exacting cases when just numbers on paper (or a screen) aren’t enough I provide forensic meteorological services for attorneys and insurance companies.

We’ve Got The Lede: It’s Raining

The TV was on in the family room as the noon news began. The lead story&#185:

Rain!

How much?

Will it be gone by Christmas?

To an outsider this might seem a little overboard… maybe to insiders too. My suspicion is it’s a much more valid lead than first meets the eye.

Let me dismiss the hyperbole first. It’s the 19th. This storm will be a faint memory by Christmas. Has California ever even seen a storm lasting six days over one spot?

Rain does have an impact here. Because it rains so infrequently, roads often have a light surface coating of oil and grease. Roads get slippery in a hurry. Freeway traffic which normally buzzes by in the 70s has to slow down.

During our last ‘storm’ the embankment adjacent to a freeway in the San Fernando Valley gave way, flooding the road and blocking traffic for most of the day.

When it comes to rain, Southlanders (is that an actual word?) are fragile flowers. Rain storms do impact them.

Anywhere else this rain wouldn’t be a concern. But this isn’t anywhere else. In SoCal we’re just not used to weather!

&#185 – Yeah, I know. This entry’s title says “lede”, but this sentence says “lead.” There’s no explanation. It just is!

Trying To Keep A Low Profile In This Weather

It came via Twitter early today.

@JRRN27 @geofffox Hey Geoff, bet you don’t miss this snow!!!! –

It’s true. I don’t.

And there lies the rub.

Will I piss off old friends if I talk about the weather too much?

Roll down the window put down the top
Crank up the Beach Boys baby
Don’t let the music stop
We’re gonna ride it till we just can’t ride it no more

>From the South Bay to the Valley
>From the West Side to the East Side
Everybody’s very happy
‘Cause the sun is shining all the time
Looks like another perfect day
– “I Love LA” Randy Newman

We were in the eighties today. Even now, at 7:30 pm it’s 64&#176. Three of the next seven days are forecast over 70&#176. Six of seven will beat 60&#176.

Like most people who’ve moved, Helaine and I keep track of what’s going on elsewhere. The Internet makes that easy. I’ve been watching the cold and snow where my sister and folks live near Milwaukee and this weekend’s weather in Connecticut.

Snow is not a singular event. It takes different skills to navigate it at different stages.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S…AND WILL FALL TO BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING. ANY STANDING WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS WILL BEGIN TO FREEZE AS THE TEMPERATURE FALLS. PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL BE LIKELY…ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY AND UNTREATED ROADS…WITH SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

USE CAUTION IF DRIVING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BE ALERT FOR AREAS OF ICE. – NWS Forecast Office Upton, NY

Better forecasting has changed how people deal with snow. Years ago snow was often a surprise. The exact accumulation might be off, but a forecast of snow today is nearly always followed by actual snow!

If you’re scared of driving in snow, you no longer have to! You can plan ahead. That’s taken a lot of people off the road in storms.

More snow is likely early Tuesday in Connecticut. It will be light, but of a long duration. That means additional inches turning dirtying snow back-to-white!

SoCal residents have little tolerance for any deviation from sunny and 70&#176s. It’s funny to see people in winter coats when it’s in the fifties. Scarves too.

My daughter confessed she enjoyed the last rainy day. It was a change from the monotony of blue skies.

I will resist, but I can see how that happens. It’s only rained parts of five days since we arrived in late June.

I Miss A Lot. I Don’t Miss Winter.

Before we moved Helaine and I talked about this day. We discussed sitting at home, seeing winter on TV. Boy did we see it today!

Detroit was playing the Eagles at in Philly. Light snow was forecast. Nearly all of it would begin after two.

In reality heavy snow fell and started hours early. The game started with the field covered and Fox cameras unable to see much detail on-the-field. Offically at PHL it was heavy snow, &#188 mile visibility and a temperature of 27&#176 (19&#176 wind chill).

Let’s pause while I tell the Philadelphia meteorologists, I feel your pain. I’ve been on the wrong end of a bad forecast. It’s a horrendous feeling.

At first I thought it was really cool to see football played in a near blizzard. Then I realized it had removed most skill from the game! Kicks didn’t roll. Passes didn’t carry. Runners couldn’t make cuts.

Detroit’s first touchdown was followed by a two point conversion. No way a kicker would try the point after.

There was some satisfaction sitting here in SoCal. I won’t lie. My apologies. I feel your pain too.

The weather here wasn’t perfect, or even good. We were in the mid-50&#176s all day with mainly cloudy skies.

We’ll get to 70&#176 before this week is out with no precipitation in the forecast. That makes it easier to take.

Back in Hamden the next twenty four hours will be an unavoidable pain in-the-ass. Snow, sleet, freezing rain. I don’t miss that.

I miss lots about Connecticut. I don’t miss winter.

Bitterly Cold–A Matter Of Perspective

Winter doesn’t officially begin for another few weeks. However, to meteorologists, winter has arrived!

So far SoCal has escaped. That’s about to change.

The map (above – courtesy HamWeather.com) compares Wednesday’s highs to the average for December 4. Cold air has dropped down from Canada. Instead of turning east, it’s mainly slithered south.

Already NWS has issued Hard Freeze Warnings for the agriculturally important San Joaquin Valley. The Los Angeles office anticipates some frost or freeze as close as the San Fernando Valley (aka “The Valley”)

The official forecast has Los Angeles seeing upper 30&#176s and lower 40&#176s overnight all the way to the weekend.

A tease on Channel 7 warned of the “Bitterly cold weather” on the way.”

Bitterly cold? I guess it’s a matter of perspective.

So far this winter we’ve had the heat on around 25 minutes. I expect we’ll be multiplying that this week.

Last week I saw Grace, one of our neighbors, walking her dog Bailey. Grace was wearing a thermal jacket and scarf. It was in the sixties. I can’t imagine how she’ll dress for this.

Addendum:

Right after I posted this entry Ryan Maue put the map (below – click to enlarge) from the 00z European model on Twitter. It’s calling for a freeze all the way to the LA County coast by Monday! For SoCal that is serious weather.

The Advantage Of Not Forecasting On-The-Air

I’m watching the Pats/Broncos and remembering winter. They’re not pleasant memories.

If I was still forecasting in Connecticut, I’d have been talking about Wednesday’s potential storm for days already. Fellow forecasters, I feel your pain. The forecast has vacillated like a bride-to-be on “Say Yes To The Dress.”

Even today no one knows for sure. I certainly don’t.

However, the models have begun to stabilize. The forecast solution has become more consistent run-to-run.

Wednesday looks like rain all across the East Coast. In fact, it looks like rain most of the way from Canada to Florida! Early Thursday the rain turns to snow, but by that time the storm’s moisture should be mostly spent.

In New York City the potential is there for enough wind to keep the balloons grounded Thanksgiving Day. No one wants that.

Here in SoCal it’s temps near 70&#176 and a slight chance for rain Thursday and Friday. Slight.

Here Comes The SoCal Rain

The radar image at the top of the screen was capture around 6:45 PM PST. The little green blobs represent rain.

It’s not raining here in Irvine yet, but it’s coming before the night is out.

SoCal’s location and topography shape so many things, including the terrible radar coverage we get! There are mountains and canyons scattered throughout the region. Radar, even NOAA’s NEXRAD radar can’t fight that adversity.

To really get good coverage you have to combine radars. Even then it’s iffy.

I watched some thunderstorms over the desert this summer. Two radars were within range and each painted the storm differently. This adjustment will take time.

I just took a look at the HRRR. Its high resolution, short time span, expertise hasn’t been in demand much since our late June arrival.

The latest run only covers through dawn tomorrow. Through that time the precip will get steadier.

The GFS continues the rain through Thursday with the chance for a few scattered afternoon thunderstorms. By the time we’re done over a half inch should fall. That’s substantial when you consider November as a whole averages just a little over an inch.

Today marks the beginning of our yearly turn toward the rainy season, aka: winter. For the next few days temperatures will stay in the low 60&#176s. That doesn’t sound terrible as winter goes.

Everyone says Californians can’t drive in the rain! It will be interesting to check the traffic tomorrow.

Can We Talk Weather?

My Connecticut periodontist, Barry, posted some pics on Facebook tonight. His new snowblower arrived.

“It’s here. She’s a beauty.”

Outside the births of his children, it’s possible Barry’s never been this proud!

On Twitter, Ryan Hanrahan of NBC30 and Eric Fisher from Boston’s WBZ, were chatting up the potential for wintry weather in New England.

Let the model watch begin (and not the fun kind). 0z coming in. We’ll be doing a lot of this for the next week or so. – @ericfisher

Barry, Ryan and Eric are all excited about winter. Me too.

As Helaine and I drove up the 405 this afternoon she said, “I knew it would be good, but not this good.”

We have had a nearly endless succession of sunny days. Today, November 6, it hit 80&#176. The dew point at 2:00 PM was 22&#176. The forecast in a word: More.

Before we moved here, I knew what the weather would be… on paper. It’s different when you’re experiencing it.

Don’t get me wrong. There will be chilly days. It will rain. The blue will be hidden behind clouds.

The difference is, bad here is short lived.

A few nights ago, Helaine and I were walking Doppler. Across the street we saw our neighbor, Grace and her pup, Bailey.

Temps were in the mid-60&#176s. Grace was wearing long sleeves and a puffy thermal vest.

“What happens when it’s really winter,” I asked?

This is what happens when you get too much of a good thing.

Bring it!

A Bar Bet You Can Win… And A Little Atmospheric Science

Stuck in an airplane for five hours a few days ago, I pondered the world just outside the window. Earthlings are fragile flowers. You think space travel is harsh? We can’t even survive at 38,000 feet!

I took a look at some early morning readings from LAX. At 38,000 feet (my flight’s cruising altitude) the temperature was around -45° Celsius, or -49° Fahrenheit.

Please, don’t ask for the wind chill reading. Least it to say, survival is short at those temperatures.

Just as important, maybe more, at that altitude the atmosphere is approximately 20% as dense as it is on the ground. Each breath of outside air would only provide a fifth as much oxygen as we usually get. That short supply would quickly lead to hypoxia, then death, which is why flight attendants show oxygen masks before every takeoff!

Obviously something must be done to make the airplane livable.

My plane’s engines were providing thrust and powering compressors to pack more outside air into a smaller space. What was piped into the cabin was more to our body’s liking. Most planes don’t pressurize the air to sea level pressure, but they get reasonably close and they mix outside air with recycled and filtered cabin air.

-BAR BET ALERT-

OK, you’ve gotten this far. I might as well give you a gift… a bar bet you can win!

If it’s -49° outside the plane you would think the air has to be heated before it gets into the cabin. Nope! The air in an airplane is actually run through an air conditioner to cool it!

Through a couple of laws of thermodynamics (which I had to learn, but you don’t) pressurizing air heats it. The airplane’s compressed air is hot enough it actually needs to be chilled before it’s blasted through the vents.

So, the answer to: If it’s -49° outside your airplane, do they need a heater or air conditioner, is air conditioner!

It is customary to rip the meteorologist 10% for any bets won, but this one’s on the house.

Mention Snow, People Go Nuts!

A few folks wrote to me because one of yesterday’s runs of the GFS computer model predicted snow over Connecticut for midweek next week. Mention snow and people go nuts!

Get a grip. Forecast models project that far out because they can, not because they’re good at it!

As it turns out, this morning’s GFS says, “Snow? What snow?.”

When I look at the models, especially when I see something unusual, I try and remember there’s a reason some events seldom happen–like Connecticut snow before Halloween. Climatology enters into the mix.

Of course unusual things (Halloween snow, Hurricane Sandy) do happen. Unfortunately the computer guidance promises a lot more often than it delivers.

There’s a joke among meteorologists about one overpredicting weather company that’s forecast a hundred of the last ten inches of snow!

Even here in SoCal I’ve got to be careful about the unusual happening. There was a story in this morning’s Irvine World News about the two inches of snow that fell here in 1949! It was also noted in an earlier Coast Magazine article.

Operations at Marine Air Station El Toro&#185 stopped. No equipment to deal with winter!

There probably won’t be snow in Connecticut next week, nor snow here in Irvine this winter. Probably, not definitely.

&#185 – El Toro was closed in 1999. It’s now the Orange County Great Park, under a mile from my house.

A Weather Observatory In Your Pocket

Your cellphone is a miracle of modern science. Along with all the features we think of most phones also have an array of sensors. Nowadays most smartphones know which way is up, how brightly lit their environment is and even have a feel for the Earth’s magnetic field!

Some phones can even sense the weather. That’s a big deal. Samsung’s Galaxy S4 knows the barometer, temperature and humidity.

Some clever geeks realized if they could assemble all this environmental sniffing it might add enough new observed data points to be useful. So began “WeatherSignal,” an Android app (sorry iPhone folks) which sucks this info off your phone for further analysis.

Understand, as weather observation platforms go your phone alone isn’t very good. The temperature in your pocket, purse or family room isn’t the same as the temperature outside. However, once you look at light sensor readings and combine hundreds or thousands of temperature and pressure observations, a pretty accurate picture emerges.

We’re still on the ground floor. A few universities and government weather offices have begun looking at this data and trying to find ways to use it to improve short term forecasts. Over time suites of sensors like what’s inside the S4 will become more, not less, common.

It’s sort of crazy to think the next breakthrough in weather forecasting might not demand satellites or super computers. In fact the next breakthrough weather observatory might be in your pocket right now. Crazy!

Cyclone Phailin Will Do Major Damage

Cyclone Phailin struck the east coast of India Saturday evening (India is 12&#189 hours ahead of PDT). A few hours before landfall top winds were estimated at 120 knots, gusting to 145 knots (around 135 mph, gusting to 165 mph).

It will be a while before we know the true extent of the damage. It’s likely catastrophic.

A cyclone is the name used near the Indian Ocean for storms we call hurricanes. In the Western Pacific these same storms are called typhoons.

Storms like this kill in a multitude of ways. Here in the US the biggest threat is not the wind!

“In the last 30 years, inland flooding has been responsible for more than half the deaths associated with tropical cyclones in the United States.”
Ed Rappaport
National Hurricane Center

That’s likely the case in India as well.

The Indian coast on the Bay of Bengal is reasonably flat with small mountains as close as 15 miles from the shore. Tidal and inland flooding are likely. Mudslides on rain soaked hillsides are possible too.

The force of the wind is so strong it’s difficult to fathom based on our own personal experiences. I’m going to use a little math, but I’ll explain every step. It’s worth understanding.

The force exerted by wind is logarithmic. That means in the calculation we multiple the wind speed by itself–we square it.

Simply put, if you double the wind speed, you quadruple the force! A 60 mph wind has four times the force as a 30 mph wind. A 120 mph wind has 16 times the force as that 30 mph wind!

Take a sheet of standard 4’x8′ plywood–32 square feet. If it was hit directly by a 165 mph gust it would be subject to over a ton of force–2,230 pounds!

The formula is: wind speed x wind speed x .00256 equals the force per square foot. Multiply by 32 for a sheet of plywood. So…

165 * 165 *.00256 * 32 = 2230.272 pounds

It will be a while before we really know what’s gone on in India. However, based on what we know expect a major tragedy even though this storm was well forecast and warnings issued. Sometimes there’s just no place to go.

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