Tag: Connecticut

An admission. Other meteorologists remember storm details vividly. Not me. Storms are transients. I try not to get too attached.

I used to be astounded by Dr. Mel’s ability in this regard. He remembered individual storms the way Pete Rose remembers individual pitches.

It’s a skill set I don’t have.

There are a few memorable exceptions. Hurricanes and tornadoes, obviously, qualify. So too do major forecast busts. I have a little experience with those too.

The weather tonight reminds me of a particularly painful forecast disaster. My best recollection says this storm’s doppelganger hit in the mid-80s. It was snow. The rudimentary models of that era did a poor job understanding its complex dynamics.

I sat on the air at WTNH and hour-after-hour pointed to the radar, said I could see the storm’s caboose and that it would be gone within the next few hours. I said that through eight or nine inches of additional snow!

It still makes me cringe.

It still makes Helaine cringe. She had to console me.

Viewers were brutal afterward. They wouldn’t forgive easily. For months, no matter where I went I got called on that forecast! It took over a year to for me to remove that one storm’s stench.

As with our current system, this one was obviously moving east into the Atlantic. What wasn’t as obvious was an upper low to the west which sucked moisture back from the ocean.

Sure the low’s center was moving away, but it made no difference. It’s influence was increasing. That more than compensated for its reduced proximity.

It’s a rare scenario you might not see for a decade or more. I still get the heebie jeebies thinking about it.

Glad not to make that mistake again tonight.

The Sun is shining. The birds are chirping. Half my front lawn is snow free. It’s so easy to think spring.

Not so fast, Bucko.

With snow, accumulation = intensity * duration. You can get a significant snow from a brief heavy burst or many hours of light snow. Odds are we’re getting the latter Wednesday morning through Friday morning. 48+ hours of precipitation seems likely!

As has been the case recently, the GFS and Euro disagree on most of the finer points.

The Euro is colder. Often I’ll look at the 850mb 0&#176C line–where the temperature at ~5,000 feet is 32&#176 Fahrenheit. It’s an excellent rain/snow predictor. That line is farther south on the Euro, meaning we’re more likely to see all snow even on the shoreline. The GFS solution leans toward mixed precipitation for the first 12-15 hours.

I’d go whole heartedly with the Euro, except for the addition of the SREF (Short-Range Ensemble Forecast) model. Uh oh, another American model?

The SREF goes out 87 hours and has been optimized to,

address the aspects of winter weather events beyond accumulation – specifically duration, timing, and intensity.

The SREF is actually 21 slightly different models run simultaneously to produce an ensemble. Like its American cousin, the GFS, it’s leaning toward mixed precipitation for the first half day.

Truth is in both the Euro or American models, Wednesday’s precipitation looks light. Even as all snow we’ll get no more than a few inches by nightfall Wednesday.

By Thursday all the models come into agreement on Ptype (precipitation type)–Snow!

By this time the forward progress of this storm has been slowed to a crawl. The GFS shows the central low pinwheeling in place most of the day!

Here’s the bottom line: Mainly light snow inland, with light mixed precipitation on the shoreline beginning Wednesday morning. Accumulations by Wednesday sunset just a few inches inland. Travel Wednesday will be a little slippery, not terribly bad. However, the storm continues.

Light snow overnight Wednesday/Thursday with light to moderate snow continuing through late morning Friday (a little longer toward I-395). Thursday will be a more difficult travel day. Friday morning too!

Final accumulations 6-12″ inland, with highest amounts north of Hartford, in the hillier terrain Northeastern and Northwestern Connecticut and inland near the Rhode Island border. On the shoreline, 4-8″ with lowest amounts in the New London/Groton/Stonington area.

Remember, in this case ‘final’ isn’t until Friday!

More updates to come.

Earlier this week my ears perked up. Friends on Facebook were asking about an upcoming weekend snow storm. I’m not as bothered by snow now that my commute to work is primarily over carpet, but I still enjoy running the forecast numbers.

It didn’t take long for the forecast of snow turn to a forecast of rain. It makes no difference. Once a day has been associated with snow it’s tough to convince people otherwise.

I just looked at the Euro and GFS models and they’re both showing mainly rain. Run-by-run the models have been warmer over Connecticut.

As the storm pulls away and cold air rushes in there will be a turn to snow late Saturday night into Sunday morning. It’s possible a few communities might get an inch or two, but if the ground is wet (and I expect it will be), much of that snow will be eaten by puddles!

A nasty weekend? Yes.

Net snow effect on Connecticut: not much!

The afternoon run of the European model is even warmer than the late night run. That means more rain, less snow. In fact most of the state well get no snow at all.

Saturday will be a crappy day. Wet, not white.

My forecast last weekend will not get me into the Meteorologists’ Hall of Fame. Another weekend. Another storm. Another chance.

For the past few years nearly every meteorologist in the United States has been bad mouthing the American models and applauding the multi-nation European model. I am in that crowd. It has been rock solid.

Diane Smith wrote me earlier today. It’s cool to be Diane Smith’s friend. She is the Ambassador from Gracious Living.

I told her a foot in Hartford, probably rain at the coast.

Anyway, Diane’s got the rock solid Euro forecast… and then… the 00Z.

Consistency be damned! This run has a different solution.

The forecast in a minute. First the proviso.

This major shift implies there’s something in the current state of the atmosphere that’s not being modeled correctly. All the dynamic atmospheric models take massive shortcuts, otherwise they wouldn’t be finished calculating before the actual weather arrived!

Don’t change plans yet.

The Euro brings the low much farther south. It’s a warmer solution.

The Euro maps don’t have the detail I like, but 10:00 PM Saturday night to 1:00 AM Sunday morning shows between 1/4 and 3/8″ of moisture, but only a spotty inch of snow from the airport north. The rest is being modeled as rain.

A rain/snow mix is awful, but as long as temperatures are above freezing it’s normally not a major threat. It’s sort of hellish to be out in.

The show starts Saturday morning and lasts the day.

There’s a chance for some snow Sunday as the colder air following the system is dragged in. Alas, this ‘after the low’ snow is modeled more often than it happens.

Bottom line: Unpleasant weekend and a forecast that’s crying to be updated later on Thursday. Will do.

In the movie “Under Seige 2: Dark Territory” terrorists grab a transcontinental passenger train. On board, Casey Ryback (Steven Segal). Of course Ryack is not rounded up by the terrorists, but his niece (played by a young Katherine Heigl) is.

As the terrorist leader discovers her connection to their nemesis, she pulls a cannister of mace from her pocket and sprays it in his face.

Penn: Not mace, sweetheart. Pepper spray. Sold to civilians.
[snatches canister from Sarah]
Penn: But once you get used to it…
[sprays some into his mouth]
Penn: …it just clears the sinuses!

We are pretty much at the same point with snow. After last week’s blizzard, a normal snowfall just clears the sinuses.

Saturday we get a normal New England snowfall–and not a big one.

The snow starts around midnight Friday night and continues through Saturday. If duration alone counted this would be a monster. Luckily, this storm will be many hours of mainly light snow.

The European model data available to me has three hour resolution and one inch threshold for snow. In none of these three hour windows does Connecticut reach an inch of snow. But, as I said, this is a long duration event. The snow exits after dark. We could see twenty hours of the white stuff!

As the storm moves into the Atlantic it will ‘bomb’. By then it will be far east of us. We’ll get little of that fury, though snowfall numbers toward the Rhode Island border will be enhanced.

Most of Connecticut will get 2-4″ of snow, with a little less in Fairfield County and a few inches more near I-395.

I’ll keep watching the HRRR, the high resolution, short time frame model Our storm encounter is starting to move into its domain. The HRRR does show some heavier snow just west of us late Friday evening. If that trend continues I’ll update this entry.

Right about now there are lots of Connecticut residents suffering cabin fever. When they bolt the house on their day off they’ll face slippery roads and slow traffic. We shouldn’t have road closures or massive power outages this weekend.

Remember, all the slippery is in the first &#188 inch. Stay safe. Milk and bread will still be available Sunday.

Everyone wants to know about Connecticut’s next snowstorm. No problem.

No, I’m not saying making the forecast will be no problem, I’m saying the teeny bit of snow falling Wednesday night will be no problem. It will whiten what we’ve already got. Not much more.

That’s it. Relax.