Tag: Hurricane Center

Florida’s Magnetic Personality

We’ve been watching some unsettled weather in the Gulf of Mexico for the past few days. Today, the Hurricane Center said, “enough is enough,” and Tropical Storm Matthew was born.

This is not a major deal and I normally wouldn’t even pop it here in the blog – other than to say I have links to the latest hurricane bulletins on the right side of the screen.

What makes it significant is that it looks to be headed toward the Florida Panhandle! That would be the fifth named storm to hit Florida this year. Can you imagine?

Matthew should grow enough to be a hurricane; still, how much more can one state take?

Ivan – I Worry

I am worried the official Hurricane Center track on Ivan is too far to the east. I’m especially worried about New Orleans, the most susceptible city in the United States should a major hurricane strike,

We’ll see what they say at 5:00 PM. Change is good.

Ivan and Jamaica

I can only imagine what it’s like to be on Jamaica tonight. Observations from the airport stopped hours ago, but the Hurricane Center has upped the wind estimate on Ivan to 150 mph.

This will be a devastating night for Jamaicans.

I have been living this nightmare in my mind for the past two days. Once it became obvious where Ivan was going, all I could do was put together the pieces. Construction isn’t good. The island is mountainous and prone to slides. There are a few hundred rivers… really mountain fed streams… to overflow.

In a few days we will get documentary proof in the form of video. No matter how bad it looks, it would have been worse to be there.

Flying Through A Hurricane

Back in July 1996, I flew through the eye of Hurricane Bertha. I wrote about it then, but it’s been mostly forgotten. I thought this might be a good time to repost it here:

The most common question I’ve been asked the past two days is, “Why would you ever fly into the eye of a hurricane?” Fair question.

First of all, I have convinced myself that it isn’t dangerous. Think about it. Career government employees. Not exactly a prescription for risk takers. The plane, a 31 year old Lockheed C-130 Hercules, seems incredibly sturdy and is as stylish as a UPS truck.

Second, it sounded like a great story. Interesting, informative, maybe even a little exciting.

Any time there’s a tropical system worth investigating, the Air Force flies to a forward base and sets up shop. The idea is to have two planes with almost continuous penetrations of the eye. This week, the 53rd Weather Recon Squadron USAF (reserve) was at Homestead AFB in Florida. It’s an eerie starting point, considering wreckage from Hurricane Andrew still litters the base and surrounding town.

Flight time to Bertha would be about 2 hours and we’d be in the air for anywhere from 10 to 12 hours. That meant 69,000 pounds of fuel in the wings, under the wings, and in a 10,000 pound tank adjacent to the port-a-john in the ‘cabin’. And enough noise from the four prop engines to force everyone to wear earplugs or earphones.

Being on the ground during a major hurricane will change you. They’re not surprises like tornadoes or earthquakes, yet they cause damage that’s often more widespread and impossible to prevent. And there’s the paradox of the eye, an area where the strongest and weakest winds are amazingly close. A hurricane’s eye passing overhead is so enticing that people have been known to leave shelters only to be ‘zapped’ as the storm started up again.

Leaving Homestead, we flew directly toward the storm. Miami Center didn’t need to vector us – we weren’t going to run into much company. Not many people do this as a hobby. At 20,000 feet the ride was smooth.

A little over 100 miles out, we descended to 10,000 feet and started taking readings. Temperature, dew point, barometer, wind speed and direction. The sea surface below had enough whitecaps and spray to show the wind direction, even at altitude. Intermittently there were patches of green. The Air Force manual carried by just about everyone on board said that that was an indication of winds over 40 knots. The clouds thickened. There was rain, hitting the windshield at almost 300 mph. My photographer, J.P. Coleman, and I made our way up the stairs onto the flight deck.

My commercial flight to Florida had two in the cockpit. This flight had five, and they all seemed to be working. I started to interview the pilot, a Lt. Colonel, until he stopped for a radio call and then a checklist. The radar, mounted on the plane’s dash, about where the radar detector is on my car’s dash, started showing a somewhat circular green area. This was Bertha.

The blip moved closer to the radar’s center as we approached. I started thinking about the turbulence. How the plane would pitch and roll. How my stomach would trick me into thinking I was about to die, when I was only going to throw up. There are hand holds in the cockpit and I grabbed one, but a funny thing happened. Nothing!

All right, not quite nothing but close. We shook for ten, maybe twelve seconds before settling back to smooth flight.

As it turns out, Bertha was “Big” Bertha because of size, not strength. The eye was not round, but oval. It had more holes than Albert Hall (If you understand this, Ann B. Davis is Schultzy, if you don’t she’s Alice).

The eye was where the real work would be done. In the back, a Master Sergeant prepared a cylindrical instrument pod called a radiosonde. He watched the wind speed at altitude. From 70 to 50 to 30 knots. And then to single digits. As the wind dipped he typed “launch” on a keyboard and the radiosonde slipped out the tube. We knew from the rate of descent that its parachute had opened. It was transmitting back to the plane while falling at about 1,000 feet per minute. As soon as we got the numbers, they were satellited to the Hurricane Center and relayed to the National Weather Service data feeds. All of a sudden, anyone with a computer could get the results of Bertha’s physical.

These numbers are still the absolutely best way to fix the hurricane’s location and estimate her strength. Lower pressure, higher temperature, bigger storm. There is currently no better way to know this than by penetrating in a plane.

And that’s the way the day went. Ten and a half hours in the air with hardly a bump. We flew 100 plus mile legs in a bowtie shaped pattern, passing through the eyewall four times.

So, what did I get out of it? Well, two live phoners, from the flight deck, at 6 and 11. The airchecks are nowhere to be found, but I’m told it sounded exotic and dangerous. That’s probably because we went from the plane to the ground via single sideband shortwave radio and had to say, “over” all the time. Today (July 11) , we aired two separate packages at 6 and 11. And, I’ve gotten a little more insight into the data I use from the National Hurricane Center.

I’d do it again

Ivan Has a Growth Spurt

The Hurricane Center has just upped Hurricane Ivan to a Category 5 with top winds of 160 mph with higher gusts! That means winds with 2.5 times the force of Frances at landfall and four times the potential to cause damage.

Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. There were no Category Five hurricanes in 1995, 1996, or 1997. Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone of record.

Tonight, my friend Bob and I were chatting about hurricanes. We realized, as bad as this season is, deaths have been low. This is 100% attributable to satellite technology. In fact, Bob suggested whoever ‘invented’ weather satellites deserved a Nobel prize for that alone!

I worry about the people on Jamaica. This storm is steaming right toward them and there’s really nowhere to hide.

Not only will the wind be destructive, but Jamaica has topography which will bring out the worst in a hurricane.

Jamaica is about the size of Connecticut in the United States. It measures about 4,400 square miles (11,400 square kilometers).

Stretches 146 miles from east to west. Varies between 22 and 51 miles from north to south. And in many ways is more like a continent than an island.

It has rugged mountain ranges, with Blue Mountain Peak, the highest point, soaring 7,402 feet. It has miles of white beaches, bordered by the blue Caribbean.

It has 120 rivers flowing from the mountains to the coast. And it has great central plains, fertile agricultural lands, towering cliffs, magnificent waterfalls, dense tropical forests…and eternal summer.

From 1uptravel

Seven thousand foot mountains will surely wring more than the Hurricane Center’s estimate of 5-7″ of rain. A direct, or even near, hit will mean catastrophic mudslides and flooding.

This storm is not done yet.

Too Much Hurricane

This season, we have all been sensitized to hurricanes. Between Charley and Frances, we have had more than enough tsuris&#185 for one year. Now there is Ivan.

Because of my job, I follow hurricanes a little more actively than most. This is a very active year. Activity doesn’t always translate into damage, as some storms stay offshore. Obviously, this year the strongest storms have made landfall.

Ivan is so unusual because of its position. Right now there are hurricane warnings for Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao and much of the northern coast of South America. That’s not unheard of – but it is out of the ordinary, especially with a storm of this strength so far south.

The Hurricane Center is, again, sending mixed signals on what this storm is right now. Their message over the longer term is bleak. Winds are forecast to approach 150 mph sustained as the center of the forecast path moves directly over Jamaica.

I am, again, worried for Florida. At the moment, the center of the path is close, but not over Florida. Still it is in the cone of uncertainty.

One more storm will be devastating to people who are already reeling. I could hear what was going on with my parents, and they were affected much less than many.

Over the long run, how will this affect Florida? Are there minds being made up this week by people who would have vacationed there, would have retired there, and now will not?

&#185 – tsuris – noun : (Yiddish) aggravating trouble

Ivan – How Terrible?

No sooner did Hurricane Frances start fading that there’s another threat to look at, Ivan. Actually Hurricane Ivan has been a topic of interest since late last week, but because it was so far from land and Frances was such a problem, we let it build in relative anonymity.

Now it can get more attention. Here’s a snippet from the Hurricane Center’s 11:00 PM EDT Technical Discussion:

THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY INDEX SUGGESTS THAT THE

CURRENT INTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL CONTINUE AS THE PROBABILITY FOR

RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NEARLY NINE TIMES THE SAMPLE MEAN. GIVEN

THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND AND THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE

CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK…IVAN IS FORECAST TO REACH 130 KT IN 12 HOURS.

Give up? As always, the technical discussion is written… well, it’s written technically.

Bottom line is, all the tools that hurricane forecasters use say this storm is a slam dunk to intensify… and it’s already Category 4. 130 kt translates to about 150 mph. Wow!

The Hurricane Center wins no prizes for Frances’ forecast. I wonder how they’ll do with this one?

It is coming from an extreme southern latitude. It was the strongest Atlantic system ever recorded that close to the Equator. Will the computer models be able to understand the dynamics of the storm when it doesn’t fit the mold? Will the Hurricane Center staff feel ‘snake bit’ as they decide what words to use and numbers to post?

Stay tuned.

Blogger’s note: My daughter tells me, whenever she sees boxed text (as we have above) it serves as a red flag signifying whatever follows will be extremely boring. Hey – I’m thrilled she reads it at all!

Television’s Quandary

I have spent a good part of this late evening playing poker and watching coverage on Hurricane Frances. Frances did come on shore, not far from Stuart, early Sunday morning.

This storm has been poorly forecast for the last few days.

Listen, I make forecast mistakes all the time – I am not claiming perfection by any means. On the other hand, I have seen a number of calls from the Hurricane Center which seemed to discard what was actually happening at the time. I have thrown up my hands in wonderment.

It’s really tough to take when there is a large staff of meteorologists consulting on each forecast, as there is at the Hurricane Center.

There is nothing else I want to see on television. Yet even with wall-to-wall coverage on cable news, and the ability to watch Channel 10 from Miami on our HD channel, there is too much filler and too little meat.

If anyone does get props, it would have to be CNN. They have done the best job from what I’ve seen. And, as much as I dislike the idea of reporters in the middle of weather that no one should be in, John Zarella has been excellent, as has their meteorologist, Rob Marciano.

The problem, of course, is at most times it’s impossible to get reports from the areas where the weather is the worst. You can’t transmit to satellites when the rain is heavy. You also can’t put the dish up to transmit when the wind is strong enough to rip it off the truck!

I believe this is more hurricane coverage than has ever been available. With the build-up to Frances, and the pictures from Charley, it was inevitable.

Frances is not the strongest hurricane, but its duration will be what’s remembered. There won’t be the destruction of homes that there was with Charley, but there will be lots of beach erosion and the kind of damage that happens when structures submit – as opposed to being instantaneously destroyed.

I will be curious to see the damage near Lake Okeechobee. It is my guess that structures aren’t quite as substantial, both because of its distance from the coast and the income of its inhabitants. Even with less wind, they will be creamed.

If this is a moderate hurricane, who would ever want to ‘weather out’ a strong one?

Tonight’s Last Look At Frances

One last look… one final peek at the computer guidance before bedtime. It is troubling.

The gfdl is continuing to call for the track of Hurricane Frances to move just north of West Palm Beach and then over Lake Okeechobee, through the center of the state, and into the Gulf of Mexico via Tampa Bay. This is well south of the official Hurricane Center forecast.

The cross state portion of the trip should take nearly 24 hours. Even that number doesn’t take into account all the hours of tumult, just the hours the eye is over land.

Miami radar is continuing to show the eye over the Bahamas. It still doesn’t look like it’s moving to me. That’s a bad sign. Slow moving storms mean more rain. If the storm is capable of 2-3″ of rain per hour, the enemy becomes time. More hours equal more rain.

On this radar screen&#185 the eye should look like the hole on the end of a drinking straw. Instead it looks like a manhole cover – huge.

That eye would really have to shrink… and quickly… for the storm to intensify. The gfdl thinks it will. There is plenty of warm, open water west of its current position. I won’t even venture a guess. I think this storm is beginning to become very unpredictable.

The gfdl anticipate landfall for the eye late Saturday evening. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it still offshore Sunday at daybreak.

Moving slowly like this hurricane Frances doesn’t have to be a Category 3 or 4 storm to do real damage. It will wear its opponents down over time.

&#185 – The link is ‘live’, meaning clicking gets you the latest view which is not necessarily going to resemble what I’m seeing at 3:43 AM EDT.

The Hurricane Center Smells the Roses

All afternoon, every time I pointed to the hurricane tracking map, I mentioned how I disagreed with the Hurricane Center’s assessment of top wind speed and forward motion. Friends from within NHC have told me there are many masters to answer to, and sometimes the forecast has political overtones. This is more intramural governmental politics – not Republican/Democratic politics.

Tonight, at the 8:00 PM update they went with numbers more to my liking (as if they care what I think). Hurricane Frances has become a Category 2 storm with top sustained winds of 105 mph.

A few minutes ago I was speaking with a reporter heading toward the storm. Yes, it’s less strong. But don’t compare the 105 mph with 140 mph. Compare the 105 mph with calm!

With this very slow forward motion and 30&#176 Celsius water (about 86&#176) between the Bahamas and Florida it might still intensify.

Frances And My Pact With The Devil

I just read the Hurricane Center’s technical discussion on Frances:

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OR EYEWALL

OF FRANCES HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE

HAS RISEN TO 959 MB. IN ADDITION…SOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY

WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING SOME SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE

DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THIS MEANS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS

WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KNOTS.

Let’s read between the lines.

Frances is already less than 115 mph and they’re worried it is going to get weaker. On the other hand, they… all of us who forecast weather actually… remember Andrew, and more recently Charley. These are storms that responded rapidly to their outside environments and hit land stronger than anticipated.

I think I mentioned last night that hurricane forecasting is attempted even though we don’t understand all the factors, or even which factors we’re leaving out. Hurricane track forecasting is bad – intensity forecasting is awful.

That’s not an insult to those who do the forecasting. It’s just a fact. And, at the moment, I don’t see any breakthroughs in hurricane forecasting on the horizon.

Here’s where the pact with the Devil comes in.

If Frances hits Florida, and it’s a wimp, then lives are saved. But then no one will listen when the next one comes… and the next one could be Andrew or Charley or the Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

On the other hand, if your forecast verifies and it’s 115 mph coming in, people will be hurt (you hope the warnings have been heeded and no one’s killed), property will be destroyed, lives displaced.

Wishing won’t change things. Still, what do you wish for?

Another Evening With Frances

There is one thing that has been established beyond the shadow of a doubt this week. Everyone has a connection to Florida. Whether it’s a friend or relative, someone living there or just visiting, we all have an equity stake in Florida.

Wherever I go people ask me about Hurricane Frances. We’ve all seen what happened on the West Coast of Florida, and this storm promises to be stronger. It’s no surprise that it scares the daylights out of normally unflappable people

Today, for the first time, the computer guidance is beginning to agree. I’ve been pointing to Jupiter/Hobe Sound and the official pronouncements aren’t far off that mark. Of course the hurricane actually has to perform as forecast… to ‘verify’ in the vernacular of meteorologists, which is never guaranteed.

A few things struck me this evening.

On-the-air, we played an ABC report which included an interview with, what I suspect, a government official in the Bahamas. He complained that maybe they had underestimated the storm.

What planet is he on? The predictions for the Bahamas couldn’t have been more dire if we had said a fiery meteor was plunging their way! The Hurricane Center, which cooperates with the government of the Bahamas in hurricane prediction, went out of its way to scare the crap out of Bahamians – and for good reason.

Unfortunately, areas with a lot of tourism often underplay warnings and later downplay damage. It’s not good for business. Not many people are going to want to go to San Salvador Island after today’s report of 120 mph sustained winds. Nassau might get a close scare. Freeport could get a direct hit.

I really miss having radar that sees Frances at this stage. Tonight the satellite imagery started showing some ‘weakness’ on the hurricane’s western flank. I commented to my friend Bob that I thought the storm would be downgraded… and it was at 11:00 PM&#185. Now Frances is Category 3.

It’s funny, but when satellite imagery begins to show a change, it doesn’t strike me as soon as the image actually comes in. It usually takes a while, staring at the satellite loop, before the trend takes hold. This is most frustrating, especially during winter storms, when I go on the air then look at the same data after my weathercast and begin to question impending changes.

The fact that Frances is weaker tonight doesn’t mean too much of anything. Storms naturally get weaker and stronger in response to their immediate environment. There are guesses why it happened, but no one knows. Hurricane experts are baffled by unknown forces all the time. And, for some unknown reason, hurricanes only have a finite amount of time they can spend as major storms. Again, no one knows why nature works this way.

Since all of weather is guided by the laws of physics, we should understand all the forces at work. We do not.

The official forecast is for Hurricane Frances to regain strength in its final march over open water to Florida. The Hurricane Center’s number for Saturday at 8:00 AM EDT is 140 mph, equaling Hurricane Frances strongest point.

It really doesn’t matter. The difference between 125 mph and 140 mph isn’t all that much in the general scheme of things. Even a minimal hurricane will cause significant damage.

More than the wind, I am worried about Frances losing her steering currents and wandering aimlessly, or at a very slow speed, in the warm Atlantic waters between the Bahamas and Florida. An extended period adjacent to land might be worse than a quick, but direct, hit. There will be that much more time for flooding and tornadoes and wind. The forecast will become exponentially more difficult (and less accurate). There will be that much more terror.

&#185 – I have no idea how this happened, but the Hurricane Center issued its 11:00 PM bulletin with the wrong wind speed! Frances was called Category 4, though it had been downgraded to Category 3. You would think something like this would be vetted.

Showing Hurricane Forecasts Differently

Over the past week or two I have followed a few conversations on weather bulletin boards considering the accuracy of hurricane forecasts. Usually, if you hear a hurricane forecast, it is couched with mentions of how hurricane forecasts are very difficult to make.

Let’s use layman’s terms: inaccurate.

This is a given. It is a part of my field I wish was better – though I understand why it’s not.

After Hurricane Charley, there has been a lot of thought given to how people in the Fort Myers area weren’t prepared for the storm even though they were in the Hurricane Warning Area. Maybe… just maybe… it has something to do with how we on TV, and the Hurricane Center, display these forecasts.

The projected path is a line and is bordered by an area of possible error, which expands over time. The thought is, get rid of the line and just show the larger area that displays our margin of error.

It’s a good idea and I’m going to implement it in my system later today.

The problem with the line is, it makes people think we’re more accurate than we really are. Here’s an example of a similar situation. Last winter, the news director for one of my competitors told a magazine reporter that her meteorologists could predict snowfall to the fraction of an inch. What probably happened was, she saw computer outputs that went to 2 places to the right of the decimal point and thought, because it was printed that way, it would be that way!

In order to produce forecasts we often make assumptions and use numbers that imply more accuracy than we have. It’s my job to keep those numbers hidden and just show the usable, trustworthy results. She had seen something not meant as a final product and without any background in meteorology latched onto it.

That’s the problem with the track line. Yes, it’s in the center, but to dwell on it implies more accuracy than we really have.

Blogger’s note: I continue to display ‘live’ links to the latest hurricane info on the right side of this page. It’s a neat feed from the Hurricane Center which I update about 100 times a day.

Hurricane Questions

After the loss of life, and confusion, following Hurricane Charley, an interesting op-ed piece was written by Bryan Norcross, Chief Meteorologist from WFOR in Miami. You can read it here now, or click the ‘continue’ link at the end of this posting.

Norcross makes some interesting points, many of which I agree with.

Though we make our own forecasts at the TV station, we respect the Weather Service’s watches and warnings (though there are times I mention them, followed by what I think will actually happen).

The bigger problem occurs when watches and warnings are contradictory. Uncoordinated watches, warnings and statements for hurricanes, severe storms… even winter weather, is a continuing weakness of The Weather Service. All hurricane watches, warnings and statements should come from one place – period.

This certainly led to the disservice done to the people for Florida.

When local offices speak, they address problems from their own perspective, which is not necessarily the public’s. And, the public and media are probably concentrating their attention on the Storm Prediction Center (Whose idea was it to change this from the much more meaningful Hurricane Center?), which is where most people would expect to find hurricane info.

I work in Connecticut, a small state served by three NWS offices. Their statements often mislead the public because each only refers to the region for which they forecast.

Here’s an example. If Boston says a watch has been canceled for Connecticut, they mean their counties. No one in Connecticut could read a statement like that and understand that half the state is still under a watch.

During the winter, Litchfield County, our ‘snowbelt,’ might be under a lesser category of alert because the Albany office uses somewhat different criteria than the New York or Boston offices. When I post a map which shows a Winter Weather Advisory for Litchfield while there’s a Winter Storm Warning for our other counties (even though Litchfield has the more wintry forecast) it does nothing but confuse.

I have been to NWS ‘customer’ conferences in Washington, and have tried to sensitize them to this confusion. As you see – no change.

Continue reading “Hurricane Questions”

Watching Charley

Tonight, at the end of the news, Ann kidded that I’d be up all night watching Hurricane Charley. That really isn’t far from the truth. I’ve already taken a few peeks.

I’m just in awe of this storm. And Charley is different than most in that it will be very watchable with high resolution precision from the comfort of home.

The Internet has taken nearly all the information I use and made it available to anyone for free. It’s pretty spectacular. I don’t think there’s any other discipline that has so much of its raw data available, and most of it in real time. It wasn’t that many years ago that radar and other data were only available by subscription.

The best view of Charley has been from the Key West NEXRAD. NEXRAD stands for ‘next generation radar,’ but it’s commonly referred to as WSR88D (a reference to its contract designation) – probably because that’s nerdier.

With its incredible electronics and computer assistance, the radar sees precipitation nearly 300 miles out. I was able to look at Charley while he was on the far side of Cuba. Even at that distance the eye was easily seen. By animating a series of images, the counterclockwise rotation was also visible.

Now that Charley is north of Cuba, and back in the open water, I’m looking for signs that he might have weakened over land. At this moment the eye is slightly elongated. It’s not enough to signal disintegration or even significant weakening. Actually, at this point, conditions are perfect for re-intensification.

At the Dry Tortugas weather buoy, in the Florida Keys, the barometer is falling and the wind picking up. It’s only sustained at 20 knots now, but that will rise. The water temperature is about 87&#187.

If you had been clinging to the buoy for the past few hours you would have noticed the sea coming up with more wave action. Strong thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds would move through sporadically. You would have seen rapidly moving clouds, but it would have been difficult, if not impossible, to realize they were part of a rotating pattern.

As far as I can tell, hurricane hunter aircraft have been flying through the storm tonight, even as it was very close to Cuba.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 973 MB…28.73 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 14 FEET IS PROBABLY BEING EXPERIENCED

ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA NEAR AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER

MADE LANDFALL. THE SURGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE HURRICANE

MOVES AWAY FROM CUBA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS

BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM SURGE

FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE

WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

When you consider the elevation of Key West, you realize a 2-4 foot forecast for storm surge is a big deal. The elevation of the airport is only 15 feet above sea level. A lot of the Key West coastline and other keys and islets will be under water.

A storm surge of 10-13 feet in the Tampa Bay area would be a natural disaster of huge proportions. There’s a large population near the coast who have never experienced a storm like this before. Many of the residents are older and evacuation will be difficult. Hurricane experts consider the area from Tampa Bay south to be our second most susceptible area after New Orleans.

Storm surge can be the big killer in hurricanes. In the Hurricane of 1900 all of Galveston was under water for a time!

For locals, any reference to “the storm” is obvious. If someone says a house survived the storm, there is no doubt it predates Sept. 8, 1900.

If people say they had family who died or survived the storm, there is no doubt that they are referring to a family history that goes back more than 100 years.

For in Galveston, “the storm” always refers to the hurricane that tore across Galveston on Sept. 8, 1900, and left the city in ruins.

Those who managed, either by sheer luck or the grace of God, to survive the storm faced the challenge of moving forward. – Heidi Lutz, Galveston County Daily News

I’m waiting for the next run of the GFDL computer model to come out and then I’m off to bed. Even with the heavy iron of computing thrown at these models, we’re already 7 hours 30 minutes past the initialization data, and it’s not available. I’m told there’s so much traffic trying to download the numbers that they’re just dibbling out. I hope the Hurricane Center has a more direct pipe.

Blogger’s note – I have links on the right side of this page which lead to updated hurricane information from the Tropical Prediction Center.