Now I remember why I hate winter so much. It’s the angst before the storms. Two are currently in the offing. I wish I was more confident about my solutions.
Computer guidance should help my forecast prep. In reality it often makes things worse! Tonight each model has a somewhat different answer to the question of snow. Some show a few inches in Northern Connecticut. That’s a reasonable amount, especially if all you are counting was what will fall.
If it were only that simple!
Most of tonight’s flakes will melt on contact. What percentage? Who knows. Significant numbers, sure. It’s tough to accurately quantify. With a few higher elevation exceptions tonight will be a minor nuisance and not much more.
Saturday is a different story entirely. The NAM, which has been the snow monger for tonight’s system is stingy Saturday. In fact it puts no snow over Connecticut!
The European, remarkably accurate during much of the hurricane season, the UKMET and GFS all bring a major Nor’easter through on Saturday. We’re talking plowable snow and a howling wind.
The problem is Connecticut’s trees are full of leaves. A storm like this has the potential to cause nearly as much limb and power trouble as Irene… with snow on top!
I’m not yet saying it’s going to happen–just that it might. There’s a significant chance. I’ll have to work that into the forecast.
Contradictory solutions from the computer models gives me pause. They’re suppose to clear things up, not muddy my view of the future.
These problems can probably be traced to Hurricane Rina, Saturday’s moisture source. Hurricanes are notoriously difficult to forecast.
I’ll be writing about this again later. Right now I’m not a happy camper.